Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya UFC 305: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Partner Authors Updated: Aug 14 2024 13:14

The UFC is getting set for another huge card this weekend in Australia with the 305 event headlined by the middleweight title fight between champion Dricus Du Plessis and challenger Israel Adesanya.

UFC 305 is scheduled for Saturday, August 17 and will take place at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.

The main event between Du Plessis and Adesanya is expected to begin at 11:59 PM ET and will be for the UFC middleweight title, which is currently held by Du Plessis.

UFC 305: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya betting picks and predictions

Dricus Du Plessis Money Line (+100)

Defending champion Du Plessis comes into this fight with an MMA record of 21-2 while he is yet to taste defeat in the UFC, boasting a 7-0 record, and he can extend that to eight wins in a row.

When it comes to striking, the South African is averaging 6.49 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50 percent, while he is absorbing 4.77 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 55 percent.

His grappling has also proven to be elite, averaging three takedowns per every 15 minutes, while he has a takedown accuracy of 51 percent and a takedown defense of 40 percent.

Challenging Du Plessis for his UFC Middleweight title is Adesanya, who comes into this fight with an MMA record of 24-3 and a UFC record of 13-3.

The 35-year-old is averaging 3.93 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48 percent, while he is absorbing 3.11 strikes per minute and his striking defense is 56 percent.

Unlike Du Plessis, Adesanya has shown little to no grappling ability. He is only averaging 0.05 takedowns per every 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of just 14 percent. The only bright spot is that he has a takedown defense of 77 percent.

Adesanya, having dominated the majority of his fights, is the small favorite here as he is looking to reclaim the UFC Middleweight title he lost in September of 2023.

That being said, Du Plessis has a significant edge in both striking volume and grappling and he has also never lost in the UFC. For those reasons, backing Du Plessis on the money line at +100 is the headline pick.

Fight to go the Distance - No (-150)

Our second pick for the UFC 305 main event will target this fight to end inside the distance.

Both fighters have shown plenty of finishing ability in their careers, with 21 of Du Plessis’s 23 MMA fights ending inside the distance and five of his seven UFC contests also ending in stoppages.

As for Adesanya, he has seen 17 of his 27 career MMA fights end inside the distance and only seen six of his 16 UFC bouts ended inside the distance.

Given the fact that Du Plessis has seen nearly all of his fights end inside the distance, backing this fight not to go the distance at -150 seems like a smart play.