Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes: UFC 303 Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC 303 is set for this weekend with a stacked fight card that will feature a UFC Light Heavyweight fight between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka as the Main Event.

Aside from the Main Event that is sure to be exciting, the Co-Main Event will feature a UFC Featherweight fight between the #3 ranked Featherweight contender, Brian Ortega and the #14 ranked Featherweight contender, Diego Lopes.

UFC 303 will take place on Saturday, June 29 and will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Early Preliminaries are expected to start at 6 PM ET, followed by the Preliminaries at 8 PM ET and the Main Card at 10 PM ET. The UFC 303 Main Card will be available to purchase through ESPN+

UFC 303: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes betting picks and predictions

Brian Ortega to win (+110)

Our main prediction for the Co-Main Event at UFC 303 between Ortega and Lopes will focus on Ortega to pull the small upset.

Ortega comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-3. He is 8-3 in the UFC, having recently snapped his two-fight losing streak with a win against Yair Rodriguez by submission in February of 2024.

Ortega is averaging 4.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38%. In terms of his defense, Ortega is absorbing 6.54 strikes per minute and he has a striking defense of 49%.

His grappling is solid as well, averaging 1.17 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 27% and his takedown defense is 57%.

Lopes on the other hand, comes into this fight with an MMA record of 24-6. He has a UFC record of 3-2, having won his last three consecutive fights, the most recent being a win against Sodiq Yusuff by KO/TKO in April of 2024.

Lopes is averaging 3.22 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. He is absorbing 4.73 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 37%. Lopes has not shown any takedown ability so far in the UFC, and has a takedown defense of 42%. However, he does average five submission attempts per every 15 minutes.

Lopes is the small favorite in this fight, but because Ortega owns the edge in both striking and grappling, backing Ortega to win (+110) and pull the small upset will be our best bet for Saturday night.

Fight to go the Distance - No (-175)

Our second pick for the Co-Main Event between Ortega and Lopes will target this fight to end inside the distance. Ortega has seen nine of his 11 UFC fights end inside the distance, which includes his last two fights in a row.

On the other side of this fight is Lopes, who has seen three of his five UFC fights end inside the distance, which includes his last three fights in a row.

Given the fact that both Ortega and Lopes have had a very high finish rate recently, backing this fight to end inside the distance (-175) will be our second best bet.

Over 1.5 Rounds (-200)

Our final pick for the Co-Main Event at UFC 303 will look at this fight between Ortega and Lopes to go over 1.5 rounds. Ortega has seen nine of his 11 UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds, which includes four of his last five fights.

As for Lopes, he has seen six of his last nine fights overall go over 1.5 rounds. Despite the fact that Lopes has seen each of his last three UFC fights end in the first round, backing the over 1.5 rounds (-200) will be our best bet because Ortega has only ever lost in the first round once.

UFC 303: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds

Brian Ortega	+110 ML
Diego Lopes	-138 ML

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.