Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes: UFC 314 Pick, Predictions, and Odds

Just over a week into April and already we are in store for one of the biggest UFC fight cards of the year at UFC 314.

The event will be headlined by a UFC Featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes.

UFC 314 is scheduled to begin on Saturday, April 12th, and will take place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The event will begin with the Early Preliminaries at 6:00 PM ET, followed by the Preliminaries at about 8:00 PM ET, and then the Main Card at approximately 10:00 PM ET. 

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes betting pick and predictions

Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (-125)

Our best bet for the UFC 314 Main Event will target Volkanovski to win and claim the now-vacant UFC Featherweight title after current holder Ilia Topuria vacated the title to move up in weight class.

Volkanovski enters this fight with an MMA record of 26-4 and 13-3 in the UFC. He has been struggling as of late, losing three of his last four UFC fights, the most recent being a KO/TKO loss to Topuria in February 2024.

Despite his poor form, Volkanovski is still considered an excellent striker and is averaging 6.16 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 56 percent.

While his defense has been a concern recently, Volkanovski absorbs just 3.44 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58 percent. Of course, Volkanovski is not a one-dimensional fighter, as he is also averaging 1.78 takedowns every 15 minutes. That said, his takedown accuracy is underwhelming at 37 percent, but he has a strong takedown defense of 70 percent.

As for Lopes, he enters this fight with an MMA record of 26-6 and 5-2 in the UFC. Lopes is currently riding a four-fight win streak, most recently beating Brian Ortega by unanimous decision back in September 2024.

Like Volkanovski, Lopes is also an excellent striker, averaging 4.20 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 53 percent. In terms of defense, Lopes absorbs 4.11 significant strikes and has a striking defense of 50 percent. 

His grappling is not nearly as strong, averaging 0.50 takedowns every 15 minutes. That said, he is averaging 2.8 submission attempts during the same period so he has shown the ability to fight on the ground. When it comes to takedowns, Lopes has a takedown accuracy of 40 percent and a takedown defense of 52 percent.

Even though Volkanovski has just one win in his last four UFC fights, he is still the small favorite. However, given that Volkanovski has been dominant throughout his career and has held a UFC title multiple times, we are likely getting him at a generous price. 

Lopes certainly looks to be a rising star in the UFC, but this is his first-ever UFC title fight, and he does not have the experience that Volkanovski has. Volkanovski also has the clear edge in striking volume, striking defense, and takedown volume. 

Lopes does hold the edge in submission volume, but Volkanovski has never lost by this method. Therefore, given his experience, our best bet for the UFC 314 Main Event will be for Volkanovski to win (-125).

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes odds

	Alexander Volkanovski	Diego Lopes
Money Line	-125	+100
By Decision or Technical Decision	+210	+450
By KO, TKO or DQ	+300	+300
By Submission	+1800	+500

Total Rounds	Over	Under
1.5	-500	+330
2.5	-235	+175

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.