Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko UFC 306: Picks, Predictions and Odds

While College Football and the NFL are likely going to garner most of the attention, this weekend the UFC will host one of their most anticipated events of the entire year.

That event is UFC 306, which will be headlined by a title fight between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.

Further, the Co-Main Event will feature a title battle between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko.

The fight between Grasso and Shevchenko is scheduled to take place on Saturday, September 14th, 2024, and will be held at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division and will be for the UFC Women’s Flyweight title, which is currently held by Grasso. 

Our article will break down this Co-Main Event by providing you with two of our best bets and the money line odds. 

UFC 306: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko betting picks and predictions

Valentina Shevchenko to Win (+110)

Our first pick for this title fight at UFC 306 is for Shevchenko to pull off a small upset and reclaim her Women’s Flyweight title.

Shevchenko enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-4-1 and 12-3-1 in the UFC. She is averaging 3.28 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. 

As for her defense, Shevchenko absorbs 2.11 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 62%. 

Her grappling ability has also been solid, averaging 2.56 takedowns every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 63% and her takedown defense is 71%.

On the other side, Grasso enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-3-1 and 8-3-1 in the UFC. 

She is a solid striker, averaging 4.67 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 43%. 

In terms of her defense, Grasso absorbs 3.95 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58%, but her grappling has not been as effective, averaging just 0.41 takedowns every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 45% and a takedown defense of 59%.

Grasso is the small favorite in this title fight given that she is the one holding the Women’s Flyweight title. 

This is also the trilogy fight between Grasso and Shevchenko, with the former having won in March 2023 to claim the UFC Women’s Flyweight title, while their second fight ended in a draw in September 2023. 

While Shevchenko has yet to beat Grasso, she still has the superior edge in grappling and will likely be much more prepared this time around. 

Shevchenko is still one of the greatest women’s UFC fighters ever, therefore backing her to win and reclaim her title will be our first best bet.    

Fight to go the Distance - Yes (-225)

Our second-best bet for the Co-Main Event at UFC 306 will target this fight to go the distance. 

Grasso has seen 13 of her 19 career fights go the distance, which includes nine of her 12 UFC fights and four of her last six.

As for Shevchenko, she has seen 11 of her 28 career fights go the distance, including nine of her 16 UFC bouts and two of her last three.

The previous title fight between these two women was a stalemate and ended up being a draw, therefore backing the trilogy fight to go the distance will be our second-best bet for Saturday night at UFC 306.

UFC 306: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds

Alexa Grasso	-138 ML
Valentina Shevchenko	+110 ML

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.