UFC 307 will be taking place on Saturday, October 5 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, and the main event features light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira defending his belt against Khalil Rountree.
The action is expected to get underway at 6:30 PM ET with the Early Preliminaries, followed by the Preliminaries at 8:00 PM ET and the Main Card at 10:00 PM. Pereira-Rountree will be the final bout of the evening.
Our first selection for the main event will target the defending champion Pereira to win by KO, TKO or DQ.
Pereira enters this fight with an MMA record of 11-2 and is 8-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.23 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 63 percent in UFC.
In terms of the Brazilian’s defense, he is absorbing 3.51 strikes and has a striking defense of 51 percent.
His grappling has not nearly been as strong, averaging just 0.17 takedowns every 15 minutes, but he does have a takedown accuracy of 100 percent and a takedown defense of 70 percent.
The challenger, Rountree boasts an MMA record of 14-5 and is 9-5 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.84 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39 per cent.
Rountree is absorbing 4.18 strikes and has a striking defense of 50 percent. His grappling, however, has been non-existent, having never landed a takedown in the UFC.
Pereira is the overwhelming favorite and while he should win this fight, backing his money line does not provide as much value. Instead, look for the champion to win by KO, TKO or DQ, a method of victory that has been seen in six of his last seven bouts.
Our second bet is for this fight to go Over 1.5 rounds. First off, Pereira has seen four of his last six UFC fights go over this mark and the same bet has landed in four of Rountree’s last six bouts.
Because both fighters have been seeing their fights go at least a couple of rounds recently, backing this contest to also go over 1.5 rounds looks like a smart play.
Alex Pereira | -450 ML |
Khalil Roundtree Jr. | +350 ML |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.