Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka: UFC 303 Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC 303 is the perfect way to end the month of June and this weekend, a huge card is set to take place.

This will feature plenty of amazing fights, highlighted by the Main Event featuring Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka for the Light Heavyweight title.

The event will kick off on Saturday, June 29 at approximately 6 PM ET with the early preliminaries, which will be followed by the Preliminaries at 8 PM ET and the Main Card at 10 PM ET.

UFC 303 will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and the Main Card can be purchased through ESPN+.

UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka betting picks and predictions

Alex Pereira to win (-150)

Our main prediction for the Main Event between Pereira and Prochazka will target Pereira to win this fight.

Pereira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-2. He is 7-1 in the UFC, having most recently defended his UFC Light Heavyweight title against Jamahal Hill in April of 2024 when he won by KO/TKO in the first round.

Pereira is averaging 5.10 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. Further, he is absorbing 3.65 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 50%. As for his grappling, Pereira is averaging just 0.18 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but has a takedown accuracy of 100%, with a takedown defense of 70%.

The challenger, Prochazka, comes into this fight with an MMA record of 30-4-1. He is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Aleksandar Rakic by KO/TKO in April of 2024.

Prochazka is averaging 5.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. He is absorbing 5.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 41%. His grappling has been decent at best, averaging 0.79 takedowns per every 15 minutes. However, he has a takedown accuracy of 60% and a takedown defense of 68%.

This fight is a rematch from November of 2023 when Pereira handed Prochazka his first UFC loss, while also claiming the UFC Light Heavyweight title that was previously held by Prochazka.

Pereira now enters this fight defending his UFC Light Heavyweight title and is therefore, the moderate-sized favorite to win.

Despite the fact that Prochazka has slightly better striking and grappling compared to Pereira, backing Pereira to win (-150) will be our best bet as he is in better form, has more UFC experience, and has already proven that he can beat Prochazka.

Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO (+105)

Our second pick for the Main Event at UFC 303 will focus on Pereira to win by KO/TKO. As previously mentioned, Pereira has 10 wins in his MMA career.

Eight of these wins have come by KO/TKO, including five of his eight UFC fights. Further, when Pereira previously fought Prochazka, he won by KO/TKO. For that reason, backing Pereira to win by KO/TKO (+105) will be our second best bet for this fight on Saturday night.

Over 1.5 Rounds (-180)

Our final pick for the UFC 303 Main Event will target this fight to go over 1.5 total rounds. While both fighters have a high finish rate, they are not known for finishing their fights quickly as of recently. Pereira has seen seven of his 12 career fights go over 1.5 rounds, which includes five of his eight UFC fights.

As for Prochazka, he has seen four of his last five fights go over 1.5 rounds and all of these fights have been in the UFC.

The first fight between Pereira and Prochazka went deep into the second round before Pereira scored the KO/TKO victory, therefore backing this fight to go over 1.5 total rounds (-180) will be our final best bet.

UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka odds

Alex Pereira	-150 ML
Jiri Prochazka	+125 ML

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.