Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres meet in the rubber match of their three-game series on Sunday night, with the first pitch set for 9:10 PM ET,

The Padres took the opener in dramatic fashion, 3-2 in extra innings behind Jake Cronenworth’s walk-off hit. The Rangers answered back Saturday night behind Kyle Higashioka’s five-RBI outburst in a 7-4 win over his former club.

Sunday’s finale features a pitching mismatch in many ways, but not in the traditional sense. The Rangers will hand the ball to Jack Leiter, a former first-round pick still finding his way through his first full MLB season. The Padres, dealing with a rash of injuries in the rotation, will turn this into a bullpen game, an approach that’s had mixed results.

While neither team has seen consistency at the plate lately, the primetime spotlight will bring out the best in the stars, especially one Fernando Tatis Jr., who’s primed to lead San Diego to a much-needed home series win.

Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres betting picks and predictions

San Diego Padres ML (-135)

Even with questions surrounding the Padres' starting pitcher for this one, San Diego still holds the edge. The Rangers’ lineup continues to struggle against both right- and left-handed pitching. They rank 26th in OPS vs. righties (.679) and are tied for 28th vs. lefties (.620). That lack of offensive consistency makes it hard to trust them on the road, especially with San Diego’s bullpen managing to hold its own in these short-staffed stretches.

Rangers starter Jack Leiter has shown flashes of potential this year, but he’s also been prone to command issues and inconsistent outings. His June was rough, marked by a 5.47 ERA over five starts, including shaky appearances against weaker lineups like the Pirates, Royals and Twins.

The Padres’ offensive numbers haven’t been electric either, ranking 22nd in OPS vs. righties and 24th vs. lefties. But they’ve proven capable of putting up timely runs, especially at home under the lights, where they’ve historically performed better.

While this isn’t a pitching duel by any means, San Diego has the bullpen depth and star power to close out this series in front of a national audience.

Under 8.5 Total Runs (-110)

A bullpen game combined with a struggling Rangers lineup and an underwhelming Padres attack makes the under a strong play here. Despite some uncertainty on both pitching fronts, recent trends point toward another low-scoring affair.

The Padres have seen their offense cool off considerably, and their .710 home OPS ranks just 19th in the league. Meanwhile, the Rangers are bottom-10 in every major hitting split, whether it’s overall OPS, road OPS or performance against both righties and lefties. The offensive firepower that propelled Texas to a World Series title two years ago simply hasn’t shown up in 2025.

Jack Leiter has reverse splits, meaning he fares worse against right-handed batters, which is an issue against bats like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, but the Padres' inconsistent production limits the overall damage potential.

Both teams also rank in the bottom third of the league in night game OPS, with San Diego 22nd and Texas 23rd. Add in a late start, two sputtering offenses, and an inexperienced pitcher on one side, and the under becomes even more appealing. This has the feel of a 4-3 or 3-2 type contest, just like the opener on Friday night.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)

Fernando Tatis Jr. is the kind of superstar who thrives under the national spotlight, and Sunday night in front of an ESPN audience could be his time to shine. While he’s just 1-for-8 in the series so far, with the lone hit being a triple, he’s due to break out in a big way, especially against a right-hander like Jack Leiter.

Tatis thrives in same-handed matchups, owning an .882 OPS vs. righties compared to just .541 vs. lefties. Leiter’s numbers against right-handed batters aren’t encouraging: he’s allowing a .271 average and an .802 OPS in those matchups.

This sets the table for Tatis to take advantage. Whether it's a laser to the gap or a pulled double down the line, he’s capable of clearing 1.5 total bases in just one swing.

With San Diego looking to avoid a third straight series loss after setbacks to the Phillies and Reds, look for Tatis to lead by example. When he’s locked in, he’s one of the most dynamic players in the league. Tonight should be one of those nights.

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Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres odds

Texas Rangers	+115 ML
San Diego Padres	-135 ML
Run Line	SD Padres -1.5
Total	O/U 8.5

Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres player props

Player Home Run Odds

Corey Seager (TEX Rangers)	+350
Jake Burger (TEX Rangers)	+375
Manny Machado (SD Padres)	+375
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD Padres)	+375
Adolis Garcia (TEX Rangers)	+390
Jackson Merril (SD Padres)	+390

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.