The Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles are preparing to play what will be the third contest of a four-game series on Saturday night.
It's Baltimore who lead 2-0 going into this weekend's encounter and the Orioles will be determined to finish the job against the Rangers.
The O’s are looking to win the series in this one as they send Cade Povich to the mound. Baltimore’s pitching has been fantastic this series as they’ve held the Rangers to just three runs through the first two games.
Corbin Burnes and Albert Suarez have done their part, and now it’s Povich’s turn. Baltimore’s #9 prospect has been decent on the mound so far as he’s posted a 4.15 ERA and 3.60 xERA in four starts.
The lefty isn’t getting a ton of swings and misses which has led to a below-average 15% strikeout rate, but he is getting a great amount of weak contact. Povich has limited hitters to just a 29.4% hard-hit rate which is far better than the MLB average. That’s been his key to success so far.
Michael Lorenzen has turned into a great signing for the Rangers. With Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer unavailable at the start of the season, Texas was low on quality starting pitching.
Lorenzen was signed to add depth to the staff, and he’s looked great in the first half of the season. In 13 starts, Lorenzen has a 3.04 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. However, the right-hander has a lot of worrisome statistics.
First, his xERA is 4.49. That’s a huge difference between his stellar 3.04 ERA, and it means Lorenzen has been incredibly lucky. That does appear to make sense since he has a walk rate above 10% and a .255 xBA. We are siding with the better pitcher and lineup right now and taking the Orioles to win.
This is a very high total which is because of a combination between two things. One, the Orioles lineup is mashing right now.
In the last 14 days, the Orioles rank second in batting average, second in on-base percentage, fourth in slugging percentage, and second in OPS.
Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman have been fantastic at the top of the order and have given Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn plenty of RBI opportunities.
Second, the weather will be on the hitter’s side. It’s going to be a hot day in Baltimore with 12 MPH winds blowing out towards left field. However, even with both of these factors, we are taking the under.
In the last two weeks, the Rangers offense has been one of the worst in baseball.
Texas ranks 23rd in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, and 28th in OPS in that span. The Rangers have scored three runs or less in four of their last five games, and I don’t think they’re going to break that trend against Povich.
The left-hander gets a lot of soft contact and not many extra-base hits. Plus, Lorenzen has looked great this month since he’s 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA and has limited hitters to a .234 batting average. The pitching should be better than the oddsmakers expect, so back the under in Baltimore.
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Texas Rangers | +128 |
Baltimore Orioles | -152 |
Run Line | Orioles -1.5 (+132) |
Total | Over 9.5 (+100), Under 9.5 (-122) |
Gunnar Henderson (BAL Orioles) | +340 |
Anthony Santander (BAL Orioles) | +350 |
Adley Rutschman (BAL Orioles) | +500 |
Marcus Semien (TEX Rangers) | +520 |
Corey Seager (TEX Rangers) | +420 |
Adolis Garcia (TEX Rangers) | +400 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.