Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 games and will look to build momentum in their fight for a playoff spot when they face the AL West-leading Houston Astros on Monday.

Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes will take the mound against fellow rookie righthander Jake Bloss, who is 0-1 with a 6.94 ERA in three starts entering this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros betting picks and predictions

Pirates ML (-135)

Paul Skenes is having one of the best rookie seasons in MLB history. The National Champion at LSU was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 Draft and became an All-Star after just 11 professional starts.

Skenes was nearly unhittable in the first half of the season as he posted a 6-0 record with a 1.90 ERA in 66.1 innings. The right-hander was consistently throwing triple-digits and his fastball sits at an average speed of 99.1 MPH which pairs extremely well with his splitter and sweeper.

Skenes didn’t have too much time to rest during the All-Star break since he was the starting pitcher for the National League in the All-Star Game, but he looked incredible in his first start in the second half of the season.

The rookie phenom nearly went the distance as he completed 8.1 innings and just four hits allowed while recording eight strikeouts. That start was against a red-hot St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and it extended his streak to 12 consecutive starts of allowing three earned runs or less.

Skenes is on a historic pace for a rookie despite taking a loss in that game against the Cardinals.

The Astros will be countering with their own rookie in the form of Jake Bloss. The right-hander is ranked as the No. 10 prospect in the Houston organization and was taken a few rounds after Skenes with the 99th pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.

The Georgetown standout had an impressive collegiate career and sped through the Minors as he made just 19 starts between Rookie Ball and Triple-A. He had a 1.91 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his Minor League career and it was enough for the Astros to call him up and give him an opportunity to showcase his talents in Houston.

However, his production hasn’t translated from the Minors to the Majors. In three starts in the MLB, Bloss has allowed 16 hits, nine runs, and five home runs in just 11.2 innings. He’s been hit hard by the Orioles, Athletics, and Marlins, and two of those three teams have really struggled against right-handed pitchers.

If Bloss was getting hit hard by the A’s and Marlins, we like Pittsburgh’s chances with Skenes on the mound.

Under 7.5 total runs (-110)

Even with such a low total, it’s hard to consider the over with Skenes on the mound. The under has hit in six of his last seven starts and the average score during that seven-start span is just 4.86 runs.

Besides his elite velocity and excellent command, another thing that makes him special is his ability to go deep in games. He’s completed at least six innings in 10 of his last 12 starts which makes it easier on the Pirates bullpen.

Lately, we’ve been seeing a trend with the bullpen when Skenes pitches. If he completes six innings, the Pirates usually send out Aroldis Chapman, Colin Holderman, and David Bednar to finish off the game. It’s been an extremely successful strategy since Pittsburgh has won eight of Skenes’ 12 starts.

Plus, those three relievers are arguably Pittsburgh’s best arms, so it keeps the score to a minimum too. That should help keep the Astros limited at the plate even when Skenes is out of the game.

Although we do think that the Pirates will get to Bloss, we don’t think the scoring will come in bunches. Bloss has plenty of talent and it’s only a matter of time before it translates into the big leagues. Plus, the Pirates offense has been lackluster since the All-Star break.

In the second half of the season, the Pirates rank 24th in OPS and 24th in wRC+. A big reason for the lack of production at the plate is the absence of Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh’s All-Star outfielder. Reynolds was placed on the bereavement list and it’s uncertain when he will return which leaves a hole in the Pirates lineup. Between Pittsburgh’s struggles at the plate and Skenes on the mound, we’re siding with the under.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros odds

Pittsburgh Pirates	-135 ML
Houston Astros	+115 ML
Run Line	Pirates -1.5 (+125)
Total	Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros player props

Player Home Run Odds

Oneil Cruz (Pirates)	+350
Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)	+560
Joey Bart (Pirates)	+600
Jose Altuve (Astros)	+870
Yordan Alvarez (Astros)	+350
Alex Bregman (Astros)	+750

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.