Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The NL East showdown between the Phillies and Mets continues with a 4:10 PM first pitch.

Both games have been blowouts thus far with each team winning once, but victory for the Phillies was more than just another number in the win column. Philadelphia clinched a postseason berth with last night’s win and now are just a game away from securing the division title.

Probable pitchers are Ranger Suarez for the Phillies and Sean Manaea for the Mets, so let’s preview this matchup and get into our expert’s best bets.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets betting picks and predictions

Phillies ML (-102)

This could be a let-down spot for the Phillies since they just clinched a postseason berth last night and were celebrating in the clubhouse, but I think they know that the job isn’t done yet.

Philadelphia has its sights set on an NL East title and are very close to accomplishing that goal. They are 7 games up on the Mets in the division and all it takes is a win today or tomorrow for the Phillies to clinch the division pennant.

With that in mind, the Phillies will be going all out for a win. Securing the division title will take so much pressure off of the team for the next week and it will give the star players like Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Alec Bohm the option for more rest days to prepare for the postseason.

Plus, the Phillies lineup is facing Sean Manaea, a lefty who had his worst outing come against them. Manaea was shelled for 7 runs, 6 hits, and 2 home runs in just 3.2 innings in his most recent outing against Philadelphia. 

Ranger Suarez missed over a month due to an injury and the Phillies were very careful about bringing him back. The break seemed to be exactly what he needed though since he’s been much sharper since rejoining the rotation.

Suarez has surrendered 5 hits or less in 4 of his last 5 starts which is extremely promising. Also, he’s limited hitters to just a 25% hard hit rate since coming back. His sinker and curveball combination has led to a lot of ground balls which is when you know that Suarez is on his game.

If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground and give the Phillies bullpen only 2-3 innings of work, there is plenty of value siding with the visitors.

Under 7.5 (-120)

This is the preferred side in this game - even though the first two games in this series have been slugfests. The series opener featured 16 combined runs which ended in favor of the Mets and last night ended with 14 runs in favor of the Phillies.

However, don’t expect the same high-scoring ways in tonight’s game.

Suarez has looked very sharp since coming off the injured list and has been fantastic at keeping the ball on the ground considering he ranks in the 89th percentile in ground ball rate in 2024.

The southpaw has also had success against the Mets this season as he’s allowed just 2 earned runs, 12 hits, and 9 strikeouts in 10.2 innings. And in a bigger sample size, he’s held the New York lineup to just a .234 batting average with a .240 xBA in 142 plate appearances.

The Mets have seen a lot of Suarez in their careers, and only Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte have had any sort of success against him.

Sean Manaea has an opt-out clause after this year and he will almost certainly select that option. The lefty has surpassed all expectations in 2024 as he enters this start with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 30 starts. Both of those numbers are career bests and he’s earned a huge contract this offseason.

He’s also only been getting better with time since Manaea owns a 1.98 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 4 starts this month and has limited hitters to a .135 batting average with a .201 xBA.

Although his worst outing came against the Phillies, he also had a solid outing against them earlier in the year when he threw 6 innings and surrendered just 1 run and 4 hits.

If we see that version of Manaea today, this game might only see a few runs.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets odds

Philadelphia Phillies	-102
New York Mets	-116
Run Line	Phillies -1.5 (+164)
Total	Over 7.5 (-102), Under 7.5 (-120)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets player props

Player Home Run Odds

Trea Turner (PHI)	+460
Mark Vientos (NYM)	+470
Pete Alonso (NYM)	+480
Kyle Schwarber (PHI)	+500
Bryce Harper (PHI)	+520
J.D. Martinez (NYM)	+540

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.