Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

As the only night game on a quiet, travel-heavy Thursday MLB slate, the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves at Truist Park stands alone in the spotlight, and it should be a good one.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM ET as two of the National League’s premier franchises wrap up a tightly contested three-game series.

After splitting the first two games, tonight’s rubber match features a fascinating pitchers’ duel between the Phillies’ electric lefty Jesús Luzardo and the Braves’ emerging right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach.

Both starters have been exceptional to start 2025, combining for 26 innings with just two Luzardo earned runs allowed between them. But the story tonight may ultimately be about more than the starting pitchers, as both teams lean on key bats and bullpens to decide the series.

Atlanta enters at 2-9, desperate to notch their first series win of the season and shake off a brutal start on the West Coast that left them 0-7. The Phillies, on the other hand, are off to a scorching 8-3 beginning and looking every bit like one of the top teams in baseball.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves betting picks and predictions

Atlanta Braves ML (-125)

Spencer Schwellenbach has looked like the real deal in his first two outings of 2025, throwing 14 scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts and a microscopic 0.29 WHIP. His command, poise and presence on the mound have been outstanding for a second-year player, and he already has a 0.8 WAR on the season.

His last outing was a gem – 8 shutout innings, 10 Ks and just 2 hits allowed in a 10-0 win over Miami.

More importantly, Schwellenbach has a strong track record against the Phillies, having faced them multiple times during his rookie season. In 18.1 innings, he posted a 2.45 ERA, including 12.2 innings at Truist Park where he held Philadelphia to just 3 earned runs.

Against the current Phillies’ roster, Schwellenbach has allowed no home runs and just three extra-base hits in 64 at-bats – a testament to his ability to limit damage.

While Bryce Harper has had some success (3-for-6 with a double), no other Philly bat has consistently seen Schwellenbach well. This bodes well for Atlanta in a game where runs may be hard to come by early.

Luzardo has also been excellent to start 2025, posting a 1.50 ERA with 19 Ks in 12 innings, but his splits suggest a few Braves hitters might have his number.

The Braves’ offensive core is showing signs of life. Austin Riley has looked much more comfortable at the plate over the past two games with a homer, two doubles and four hits. Marcell Ozuna continues to get on base at an elite rate (.500 OBP), while Ozzie Albies is due for a breakout against a pitcher he has three doubles against.

If the Braves can push 2 or 3 runs across against Luzardo and get to the Phillies’ bullpen by the sixth, their bats could do enough to tilt this in their favor.

At home, with a series win on the line and a locked-in ace on the hill, we’re backing Atlanta to finally break through and build on their first real momentum of 2025.

Over 7.5 Total Runs (+105)

Yes, the starting pitching has been phenomenal. Luzardo just blanked the Dodgers for 7 innings in his last start. Schwellenbach has yet to give up a run in 2025. But we’re still leaning toward Over 7.5 runs in this one.

Here’s why: both bullpens have been tested heavily in this series. Philadelphia's relievers were leaned on early in Game 2, and Atlanta's relief corps gave up four late runs in the same game.

With this being the third game in as many days for both clubs, and a travel day looming, pitchers on the back end might not have their best stuff.

The forecast also calls for ideal hitting conditions: temperatures reaching 70, cloudy skies and a six MPH breeze blowing west — out to rightfield at Truist Park. This could subtly favor power hitters like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna.

Additionally, Luzardo has been strong, but not invincible, against the Braves. He’s never pitched at Truist Park and while he’s held hitters like Matt Olson and Michael Harris II in check, Albies and Ozuna have combined for strong career numbers against him. Albies is 4-for-13 with 3 doubles and Ozuna has homered off Luzardo in the past.

For Philly, power threats like Schwarber and Harper could tag Schwellenbach with his first earned runs of the season. One swing from either could change the complexion of this game.

A final score in the 6-3 or 6-4 range feels very much in play.

Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)

Marcell Ozuna is off to a sneaky-strong start to 2025 despite lacking a marquee moment. Through 11 games, he’s hitting .273 with a stellar .500 OBP, built in part by 15 walks and an .894 OPS. He’s been seeing the ball well, working deep counts and making consistent contact, even if the power hasn’t quite exploded yet (just one extra-base hit in 21 April at-bats).

Tonight could be his slugging breakout.

Ozuna has solid career numbers against Luzardo, including a home run and an average over .300. He’s driven the ball well off the lefty and has a history of stepping up in big divisional matchups. With Austin Riley heating up in the cleanup spot behind him, Ozuna could see more hittable pitches and may finally do damage to back up his patient approach.

He’s hit safely in both games of this series (3 total hits), and tonight, we feel a double or home run is very much on the table. At +140 for 2+ total bases, Ozuna provides great value to be a catalyst in the heart of Atlanta’s lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves odds

Philadelphia Phillies	+105 ML
Atlanta Braves	-125 ML
Run Line	ATL Braves -1.5
Total	O/U 7.5

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves player props

 Player Home Run Odds

Kyle Schwarber (PHI Phillies)	+350
Marcell Ozuna (ATL Braves)	+375
Austin Riley (ATL Braves)	+375
Bryce Harper (PHI Phillies)	+475
Sean Murphy (ATL Braves)	+500
Matt Olson (ATL Braves)	+550

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.