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New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Game 3: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

For the first time in Divisional Series history, all four series are tied at 1-1 after the first two games.

The American League will resume their series on Wednesday for Game 3, and one series that has gathered plenty of excitement is between the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees.

New York took the series opener, but the Royals bounced back with a win on Monday night to even things up. The setting now switches to Kansas City for Game 3.

Our expert dove into this pivotal matchup and has his best bets locked in already.

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Game 3 betting picks and predictions

Kansas City Royals ML (-105)

It’s not often to find a home underdog in the postseason, so when it happens, it’s worth a look and in this case, it’s worth way more than that. The Royals evened the series behind a fabulous outing from Cole Ragans who has been nearly unhittable in the postseason. The lineup was able to provide him with some run support as they totaled 11 hits and 4 runs against Carlos Rodon and the Yankees bullpen.

It was crucial for the Royals to win one game in New York because now the setting changes to Kansas City for the next two games and, in the postseason, home-field advantage is very important.

It’s perhaps even more important for the Royals since they had some of the most dramatic home and away splits at the plate in the regular season. On the road, the Royals lineup ranked 18th in batting average, 28th in OBP, and 20th in OPS. However at home, the lineup had the 4th best average, 9th best OBP, and 10th best OPS in baseball. Kansas City took advantage of the generous hitting conditions in their home park throughout the regular season and I’m expecting that to continue in the postseason.

The Yankees announced that Clarke Schmidt will start Game 3 in KC. New York threw Gerrit Cole in Game 1 and then Rodon in Game 2 which left Schmidt with the opportunity since Marcus Stroman was left off the roster and Nestor Cortes is injured for this series.

Schmidt missed the majority of the season with an injury but returned in September and went 0-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in five starts. He allowed a .244 batting average and 46% hard-hit rate in that span and failed to complete five innings in two of the outings.

His counterpart will be Seth Lugo, who has been a workhorse for Kansas City in 2024. He posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 33 regular season starts and continued that success into the postseason with an excellent outing against the O’s last week. He threw 4.1 innings and allowed 1 run and 5 hits and struck out 6. Lugo’s only mistake was a Cedric Mullins home run, but besides that, he was sharp.

There is a clear pitching advantage in this game so back the Royals.

Under 8.0 (-115)

This is the first time in the Divisional Series that the total has been set above 7.5 runs. Oddsmakers are expecting a bit more offense now that the series has shifted to Kansas City which makes sense considering the Royals’ dramatic splits at home and the quality of pitching.

However, I’m not expecting both teams to contribute to the total. The Yankees were completely shut down by Cole Ragans on Monday and then the Royals bullpen surrendered just 1 run and 4 hits in the remaining five innings.

I’m expecting the Royals to have the same approach in Game 3 which is to try and get at least 4-5 innings out of Lugo before switching to the bullpen. If Kansas City does something like Lugo, Michael Lorenzen, Sam Long, John Schreiber, and Lucas Erceg, the Yankees lineup won’t have many opportunities to score in bunches.

Schmidt is not the type of pitcher to go deep into games. In the regular season, the right-hander completed six innings just twice in 16 starts. He’s the type of pitcher that Aaron Boone only wants to see face a lineup twice since hitters are much better against Schmidt the third time around. In fact, opponents have a near .300 average and 1.000 OPS in their 3rd at bat against Schmidt.

With that in mind, I’m expecting for Schmidt to only go four innings before the bullpen has to cover the rest of the game. Kansas City should be able to scrap a few off of Schmidt and maybe another against the Yankees bullpen, but this game should still stay under the total.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Game 3 odds

New York Yankees 

-115 ML

Kansas City Royals 

-105 ML

Run Line 

NY Yankees -1.5

Total 

O/U 8.0

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Game 3 player props

Player Home Run Odds

Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) 

+260

Giancarlo Stanton (NY Yankees) 

+350

Juan Soto (NY Yankees) 

+475

Salvador Perez (KC Royals) 

+450

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC Royals) 

+500

Michael Massey (KC Royals) 

+600

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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