This week’s edition of Sunday Night Baseball takes place in Detroit as the Yankees and Tigers wrap up a three-game set.
The series is even at one game apiece, so the winner of this game is also the winner of this series. The probable pitchers are Marcus Stroman for the Yankees and Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, so let’s preview this matchup and see our expert’s best bets.
Tarik Skubal is becoming a household name, so it only makes sense for him to be in line to start in tonight’s nationally televised game.
Skubal burst onto the scene in 2023 after he returned from elbow surgery that sidelined him for a year. In 15 starts last year, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and limited hitters to a stunning .197 xBA.
The Tigers were excited to see how Skubal would perform in a full season, and it was worth the wait.
Skubal has been one of the most dominant pitchers since Opening Day and has been the favorite to win the American League for the majority of the season.
He comes into this game with a 2.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 24 starts and has only been getting stronger as the season gets longer.
By this point in the season, a lot of starting pitchers will begin to experience fatigue or a dead arm, but Skubal has shown no signs of slowing down. Skubal has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his five starts in the second half of the season and has limited hitters to just a .221 xBA with a 29% strikeout rate in that span.
The Yankees are countering Skubal with the right-hander Marcus Stroman. These two pitchers could not be more different considering Stroman relies on offspeed pitchers and soft contact while Skubal uses his high-velocity fastball and wicked slider for plenty of swings and misses.
Also, Stroman isn’t as efficient as Skubal. The New York starter has completed five innings in only four of his last seven starts. He struggles with control and will get down in the count a lot which makes his pitch count soar.
And, since the All-Star break, Stroman is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in four starts. There is a clear pitching advantage in this game, so if the Detroit lineup can get a few runs against Stroman, that should be all Skubal needs to cruise to a win.
Whenever Skubal is on the mound, it’s hard to expect a lot of runs from the opposing team. That’s especially true in this case since tonight’s start will be on his home mound.
Skubal has been phenomenal at home this season as he’s 8-1 with a 2.34 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in 12 starts. He’s limited hitters to a stunning .180 batting average with a .511 OPS in those starts, so it’s clear he prefers pitching at Comerica Park.
However, even though he’s been lights out at home, the over has been very profitable when Skubal pitches. The over has hit in his last five consecutive starts and in 16 of his 24 starts this season.
Usually, the total is set very low since Skubal is on the mound, but the oddsmakers fail to factor in the Tigers lineup. The Detroit offense is averaging 7.6 runs in Skubal’s five starts in the second half of the season. And tonight, the Tigers take on a struggling pitcher that has been even worse since the All-Star break. Stroman has allowed a .366 batting average and .363 xBA in four starts in the second half of the year.
Stroman has never been a strikeout-first type of pitcher, and that’s really been the case this season. He has a 16.6% strikeout rate which is the lowest of his entire career.
Not only that, but he has a 9.9% walk rate which is also the highest of his career. Stroman’s control is getting worse and good lineups have punished him for that recently.
He’s allowed at least three runs in three of his four starts since the break and is no longer getting the soft contact he was at the beginning of the year.
Between the high-scoring games with Skubal on the mound and Stroman’s struggles in the last few weeks, take the over in Sunday Night Baseball.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.
New York Yankees | +105 |
Detroit Tigers | -125 |
Run Line | DET Tigers -1.5 |
Total | O/U 8.0 |
Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) | +215 |
Juan Soto (NY Yankees) | +400 |
Giancarlo Stanton (NY Yankees) | +280 |
Kerry Carpenter (DET Tigers) | +425 |
Spencer Torkelson (DET Tigers) | +400 |
Parker Meadows (DET Tigers) | +500 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.