New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The series opener was a thriller as the Red Sox clawed their way back from a three-run deficit in the 7th inning to win the game 9-7.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox betting picks and predictions

Red Sox Money Line (-118)

A few key situational hits by Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida earned Boston a much-needed win after their 13-run loss to the Rockies on Wednesday. 

The Sox will look to start a winning streak tonight as Kutter Crawford takes the mound for his 21st start of the season. 

Crawford looked like a Cy Young candidate early in the campaign but came back to reality in May as the regression hit him hard. However, the 28-year-old bounced back with a 0.45 ERA in his final three starts before the All-Star break. 

His most recent start was his first in the second half of the season and he got rocked by the Dodgers, but it’s hard to see him giving up five home runs again in an outing. Plus, Crawford has already made two starts against the Yankees this season and has allowed three runs, six hits, and one walk in 13 innings. 

After a terrible outing in Los Angeles, this is the perfect situation to get right for Crawford.

The Yankees have been one of the worst teams in baseball in the last few weeks. The powerful line-up has cooled off drastically and the red-hot rotation has been getting rocked recently. 

Gerrit Cole hasn’t been great, Nestor Cortes can’t pitch away from home, Carlos Rodon is as inconsistent as they come, and Marcus Stroman hasn’t been able to find his groove. 

Stroman goes into this start with a 3.51 ERA and a 4.50 xERA which indicates he’s been on the lucky side of things so far. That’s not hard to believe since he has the highest barrel rate and walk rate of his career. 

He’s struggling to get swings and misses with his offspeed pitches and his fastball velocity continues to decrease year on year. 

Tonight’s start will be his second of the year at Fenway, and in his first outing, he was shelled for four runs, seven hits, and four walks in just five innings. The Red Sox lineup has had plenty of success in their careers against Stroman, so the home team are worth siding with on Saturday night.

Over 9.5 (-120)

Last night’s game flew over the total. There were 16 combined runs and nine of them came after the sixth inning. 

That’s a big selling point for the over - neither bullpen is reliable. New York’s bullpen has been struggling in July and the Red Sox' has been extremely overused in the last few weeks. Once Crawford and Stroman are out of the game, the scoring should only increase. 

It’s also going to be ideal hitting conditions at the already hitter-friendly Fenway Park with temperatures in the high 70’s and barely a cloud in the sky. If the ball was flying last night, it should explode off the bat tonight.

Crawford allowed eight home runs in June but just gave up five homers in one outing against the Dodgers.

Meanwhile, Stroman has struggled at Fenway his whole career. In seven starts at the historic Fenway Park, Stroman owns a 4.02 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP. He has allowed a .282 batting average and a .779 OPS in those seven outings.

It's clear he’s not too comfortable pitching in the hitter-friendly atmosphere, so between his struggles in Boston and Crawford’s barrel rate, the over is the way to go.

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New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox odds

New York Yankees	+100
Boston Red Sox	-118
Run Line	Yankees -1.5 (+146)
Total	Over 9.5 (-120), Under 9.5 (+100)

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox player props

Player Home Run Odds

Aaron Judge	+200
Juan Soto	+350
Ben Rice	+480
Rafael Devers	+390
Jarren Duran	+680
Wilyer Abreu	+540

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.