The New York Yankees open a two-game series against the New York Mets on Tuesday night.
The Yankees, the hosts of this series, are looking for the win to close the gap on the American League East-leading Baltimore Orioles. On the other hand, the Mets are hanging on to the National League's final Wild Card spot.
It’s one of the best in-state rivalries in all of sports: the Subway Series. The Mets travel from Queens to the Bronx to take on the Yankees in a two-game set that will feature Jose Quintana and Luis Gil in the series opener.
It’s a quick series which puts even more pressure onto winning the first game. The visiting Mets will send Quintana to the mound for his 20th start of the season, and although the lefty has a respectable ERA, it’s misleading.
Quintana was a pleasant surprise in the first half of the season as he went into the All-Star break allowing three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. He appeared to be as reliable as they come, but his advanced metrics indicated that his success was something of a fluke.
Quintana has an xERA above 5 and an xBA near .300 which are some of the worst marks in baseball. He ranks in the ninth percentile in xERA, eighth percentile in xBA, and 15th percentile in hard-hit rate.
The bottom line is this: the veteran should be regressing soon since he can’t keep this success rate up with his advanced metrics.
The Yankees will counter the 35-year-old Quintana with the 26-year-old Luis Gil. Gil has been in the running for the AL Rookie of the Year award, but a few bad starts at the end of June knocked him down a few slots.
However, Gil bounced back with an excellent final two starts of the first half as he surrendered just two runs and nine hits with 16 strikeouts in 12.2 innings against the Boston Red Sox and Orioles.
The All-Star break might have been just what Gil needed considering he’s already thrown the most innings in his professional career. With an extended amount of rest and this start coming in his home ballpark, Gil has all the advantages he needs to put together a quality outing.
At a respectable price, I’m taking the Yankees to win the first game of the Subway Series.
The weather looks like it could affect Tuesday’s game as rain is in the forecast in New York City. It doesn't appear to be heavy or last too long, but it wouldn’t be too surprising to see a few raindrops during the game.
I was already leaning towards the under in this matchup, and the chance of rain has made me confident in the selection. Plus, I’m not expecting too much run production from the Mets with Gil on the mound for the Yankees.
Only Francisco Lindor and J.D. Martinez have had success against Gil in their careers while the rest of the Mets lineup has struggled against the young ace. In fact, between Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Vientos, and Harrison Bader, none of them have a hit against Gil in their careers.
As long as Gil can work around Lindor and Martinez, he should be able to have a successful night against an inconsistent Mets offense.
The Yankees lineup broke out in their previous series against the Rays, but I’m not expecting another nine-run performance tonight. That’s because the New York offense has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching in the last few weeks.
Since June 1, the Yankees lineup ranks 18th in wRC+ against southpaws. Even with the right-handed power bats in their lineup, the Yankees have preferred to face right-handed pitchers lately. Plus, the Mets bullpen has several elite arms that are rested and should appear tonight after Quintana.
I’m expecting a score around 5-2 in favor of the Yankees.
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New York Mets | +135 ML |
New York Yankees | -160 ML |
Run Line | NY Yankees -1.5 |
Total | O/U 9.0 |
Pete Alonso (NY Mets) | +525 |
Francisco Lindor (NY Mets) | +475 |
J.D. Martinez (NY Mets) | +600 |
Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) | +260 |
Juan Soto (NY Yankees) | +450 |
Gleyber Torres (NY Yankees) | +650 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.