New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers meet Monday night in a marquee matchup between two National League contenders.

All eyes will be on Paul Blackburn, who has been sidelined since August 2024 due to a brutal line-drive hand injury, a spinal fluid leak that required a five-month recovery and then knee inflammation.

The 31-year-old will pitch in a major league game for the first time in nearly 10 months and he faces a daunting challenge against a red-hot Dodgers offense that just overtook the Yankees as the best in MLB and will be in their home ballpark.

While the Mets are no slouch offensively, the Dodgers’ lineup is relentless, and Dustin May, who’s quietly enjoying a strong campaign, draws the start for LA.

May has been terrific at home and boasts strong reverse splits, giving him a good chance to neutralize New York’s left-handed bats.

The Dodgers have also been a wagon at the plate lately, particularly at Dodger Stadium. With revenge on their minds after dropping two of three to the Mets earlier this month in New York, the Dodgers are in a great spot to bounce back in style.

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers betting picks and predictions

Dodgers -1.5 (+120)

This is a tough spot for the Mets. They’ve looked good lately, but that’s largely been a product of scheduling. New York just swept the last-place Rockies and took care of the also-reeling White Sox. 

Before that, their road record was a less than spectacular 10-15. In this clash, they return to reality, facing the defending champions in their home park with a pitcher making his first start in nearly a year. 

Blackburn’s 4.85 career ERA and shaky recent big league track record leave little reason for optimism in this setting.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, are coming off a high-octane weekend, taking two of three from the Yankees and exploding for 18 runs on Saturday. They lead the majors in batting average, OPS, and OPS at home. 

Even with Mookie Betts sidelined with a fractured toe, their elite top four hitters – Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith – all went hitless Sunday night, and you can bet they’ll come out swinging to avoid back-to-back duds.

Blackburn’s matchup numbers against the current Dodgers lineup are rough. In 26 combined plate appearances, Dodgers’ hitters own a .472 expected wOBA, a .703 expected slugging and a 92.6 mph average exit velocity.

On the other side, May’s 2.96 ERA at home and favorable splits give him the edge against most of New York’s lineup. With the Dodgers getting a favorable pitching matchup and motivation after a missed sweep on Sunday Night Baseball, they are expected to win comfortably.

Over 9 Total Runs (-125)

It’s often risky to back the over in a game with a total as high as nine, but all signs point to runs in this contest.

The Dodgers have now seen the over hit in six straight games and in nine of their last 12 at home. Each of their three games against the Yankees went over the total, and they’ve been feasting at the plate in LA.

That trend should continue against a pitcher making his season debut following a long layoff and a string of physical setbacks.

Even though Blackburn pitched decently in Triple-A, the gap between minor league tune-ups and facing one of the best offenses in baseball is enormous. Given that the Dodgers also own an MLB-best .827 OPS vs. right-handed pitching, this is a perfect storm for another high-scoring affair.

The Mets have some thunder in their lineup, too. While May has solid overall numbers, he has been vulnerable to right-handed hitters like Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos.

Alonso, notably, is 2-for-3 in his career against May, has been great all year and carries an eight-game hit streak into this contest. And while the Mets’ OPS drops on the road and at night, they’re still fifth in MLB in OPS vs. righties, and their momentum from recent wins over the Rockies and White Sox could help them plate a few.

Max Muncy over 1.5 total runs + hits + RBI (-110)

Max Muncy is officially heating up, and that’s bad news for Blackburn.

Muncy raised his OPS from 678 to 749 over the weekend thanks to a monster two-day stretch against the Yankees that included four hits, three home runs and eight RBI. The most encouraging part? He’s looking like the Muncy of old. He’s taking good swings, drawing walks and crushing fastballs and changeups (Blackburn’s two most used pitches).

At home this season, Muncy has a .916 OPS, and he’s always been a streaky power hitter. Once he gets hot, he tends to stay hot, and with this favorable matchup, there’s no reason to think the fire cools now. 

Against right-handed pitchers this season, he owns an .893 OPS and he’s already got 11 home runs on the year.

The books have caught on somewhat, pricing his home run prop at just +350, but that’s still great value for a guy in a deep lineup who’s finding his power stroke. Whether it’s a long ball, a couple of walks and a hit or a timely RBI knock, Muncy has multiple paths to clearing this number.

With how the Dodgers are hitting, and the added benefit of lineup protection and likely 4-5 plate appearances, there is great value on Muncy to tally at least two combined runs, hits and RBI.

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New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers odds

NY Mets	+145 ML
LA Dodgers	-170 ML
Run Line	Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
Total	O/U 9

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers player props

Player Home Run Odds

Shohei Ohtani (LAD)	+160
Pete Alonso (NYM)	+350
Max Muncy (LAD)	+350
Freddie Freeman (LAD)	+375
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD)	+425
Andy Pages (LAD)	+425

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.