New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The New York Mets open a three-game set against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Monday night.

Both clubs are in need of a rebound, with the Mets in a mini-slump after a strong start and the Red Sox have seen their pitching staff unravel over the past week.

New York still shares the best record in the National League with the Dodgers, but their offense has gone ice cold, failing to score more than three runs in any of their last five games.

Meanwhile, Boston’s bats have stayed relatively productive, but their pitching has faltered, giving up six or more runs in five of their last six games.

With two volatile arms taking the mound in Kodai Senga and Hunter Dobbins, this series opener sets up for a compelling betting landscape.

New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox betting picks and predictions

Mets Moneyline (-130)

Senga’s 1.02 ERA through 44 innings jumps off the page and despite some underlying metrics suggesting regression is coming, the Mets still hold the edge in the pitching matchup.

The 32-year-old Japanese’s strength lies in his elite offspeed offerings, specifically his forkball, which ranks in the 98th percentile in run value per Baseball Savant.

While his fastball and breaking pitches have been average, his ability to miss bats (42 strikeouts) and keep the ball in the yard (just one home run allowed) makes him a serious threat to any lineup.

Senga’s overall body of work, including a minuscule opponent batting average of .157 against righties, suggests he’s likely to control the game, at least more so than the Red Sox’s right-handed rookie.

Opposing him is Hunter Dobbins, who has flashed some promise but is still finding consistency. His last start saw him surrender five runs in five innings to the Tigers, and he’s been tagged hard by left-handed hitters all year (.370 AVG, 1.074 OPS).

The Mets lineup includes lefty bats like Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor and Brett Baty, who are all capable of taking advantage.

New York has gone 23-11 as a money line favorite this year and should be well-positioned to bounce back offensively after a tough weekend in the Bronx.

With the better starting pitcher and a deeper, more disciplined lineup, the Mets at -130 are worth backing in a rebound spot.

Over 9 Total Runs (-110)

This game might feature two pitchers with sub-4.00 ERAs, but both are sitting on trap doors. Senga’s pristine 1.02 ERA is backed by a more realistic expected ERA of 3.33, and he’s facing a Red Sox team that ranks sixth in MLB in total runs scored (234) and seventh in home runs (60).

Boston has scored four or more runs in five of its last six games and continues to get strong production from the likes of Rafael Devers (four home runs in his last 10 games), Alex Bregman and Wilyer Abreu.

Senga has shown some vulnerability against lefties. He’s allowed a .253 average and .724 OPS with a .356 OBP to lefties this season, which could spell trouble at Fenway, a notoriously friendly park for left-handed hitters.

Abreu, who boasts one of the lowest whiff rates on the team (18.2%) and a high hard-hit rate, could be the one to take advantage.

On the flip side, Dobbins’ vulnerability against left-handed hitters should be exploited tonight. The rookie has surrendered seven doubles and three home runs to lefties in just 54 plate appearances, and he doesn't induce a ton of soft contact – his breaking stuff ranks in the 12th percentile in effectiveness.

Despite New York’s recent offensive lull, this looks like a potential breakout game. The Mets average 4.5 runs per game and have hit 52 home runs, good for 12th in MLB. Their strikeout rate is among the lowest in the league, which should negate some of Dobbins’ elite chase rate.

Additionally, the Red have a suspect bullpen behind them, and they boast a 4.16 ERA as a pitching staff, which ranks 20th in MLB.

Given the short dimensions of Fenway Park, the lefty-heavy nature of both lineups, and the signs of regression in both starting pitchers, this high total of 9 is deserved, but these offenses can still combine to go over it. A 6-5 or 7-4 final is well within reach.

Juan Soto Over 2.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115)

Soto has been a steady producer all year, but not even close to the production his underlying numbers suggest, and Monday night presents the ideal spot for him to explode.

He’ll face Hunter Dobbins, who’s been crushed by left-handed hitters to the tune of a 1.074 OPS and .370 batting average. Soto is among the most disciplined hitters in baseball, rarely chasing out of the zone and consistently making solid contact without relying on extreme launch angles.

During the Mets’ recent offensive struggles, Soto has just two hits with no extra-base hits – it’s actually been since May 9th since he recorded an extra-base hit. The fact he has still managed a .379 OBP, .443 SLG (.822 OPS) and a 1.7 WAR showcase his ability to impact the game in multiple ways.

Facing a right-handed pitcher with limited experience and league-average stuff, Soto will be looking to capitalize.

Fenway Park also plays right into Soto’s strengths. With the ability to drive the ball to all fields and a strong plate approach, he can easily put together a multi-hit game and add production via walks, RBIs or extra-base hits.

In 22 at-bats as a Yankee at Fenway last season, Soto recorded a double and two home runs, helping him translate his production to a .900 OPS. 

Soto to eclipse 2.5 total hits + runs + RBIs at plus money feels like one of the top player props on the board Monday night.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.

New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox odds

New York Mets	-130 ML
Boston Red Sox	+110 ML
Run Line	Mets -1.5 (+120)
Total	O/U 9

New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox player props

Player Home Run Odds

Pete Alonso (NYM)	+320
Wilyer Abreu (BOS)	+325
Juan Soto (NYM)	+325
Francisco Lindor (NYM)	+350
Rafael Devers (BOS)	+375
Brandon Nimmo (NYM)	+450

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.