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2025 MLB Most Regular Season Home Runs Odds

Who will hit the most home runs in Major League Baseball during the 2025 regular season?

Aaron Judge has led MLB in regular-season home runs twice in his career, doing so in 2024 and 2022.

In each of the past three seasons, the league leader in homers has hit at least 50. Judge hit 58 in '24 and 62 in '22, and 2023 league leader Matt Olson hit 54 that year.

Ahead of 2025 Spring Training and with plenty of high-profile free agents still looking for new teams, let's take an early look at the odds to lead MLB in home runs in 2025.

2025 MLB Most Regular Season Home Runs Odds

Aaron Judge

+400

Shohei Ohtani

+700

Kyle Schwarber

+1200

Fernando Tatis Jr.

+1600

Pete Alonso

+1800

Yordan Alvarez

+2500

Anthony Santander

+2800

Juan Soto

+2800

Brent Rooker

+3000

Gunnar Henderson

+3000

Kyle Tucker

+3000

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

+3500

New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is the early favorite to lead MLB in home runs for the 2025 season at +400. Judge hit 315 home runs in nine seasons, although he played just 27 games as a rookie in 2016 and 28 games in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

Judge has three seasons with at least 50 home runs and two more seasons with over 30 homers. He averages 51 home runs every 162 games, and if he keeps it up in 2025, he has a good shot at landing atop the HR leaderboard once again.

Second in the odds and the only other player shorter than 10/1 to lead the league in homers is Los Angeles Dodgers superstar designated hitter/starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani at +700.

Shotime won 2024 NL MVP as a DH since he had an injured elbow and could not pitch, and he hit an NL-best 54 homers. The season before with the LA Angels, he hit an AL-best 44 HRs. He averages 42 HRs per 162 games through his seven MLB seasons.

Third in the odds at +1200 is Philadelphia Phillies DH and leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber. He led the NL in homers in 2022 when he hit 46, and he's coming off a 2024 campaign in which he 38 homers in 150 games. He averages 41 homers per 162 games and has 35+ home runs in each of the last three seasons.

San Diego Padres RF Fernando Tatis Jr. is fourth in the home run leader market at +1600. Tatis led the NL in homers in 2021 with 42, but he hit 25 homers in 2023 and 21 in 2024 after missing the 2022 campaign due to suspension. His 162-game average is 40 homers, but he has played more than 110 games in a season just twice in six years.

Fifth in the market and still an unsigned free agent is +1800 Pete Alonso. The Polar Bear has hit at least 40 homers in three of his six seasons - all spent with the New York Mets - but he's coming off a down year as he hit less than 35 HR and posted an OPS below .800 for the first time in his career over a full season.

The next tier in the market, from 25/1 to 35/1, are Houston Astros DH/LF Yordan Alvarez, unsigned free agent RF Anthony Santander, new big-money Mets RF Juan Soto, Athletics DH/OF Brent Rooker, Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson, newly-acquired Chicago Cubs OF Kyle Tucker, and Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Read the latest MLB news on site.

Odds displayed within this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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