A star-studded cross-league clash is on deck on Saturday as the Los Angeles Dodgers remain in Texas to battle the Rangers in a series featuring the two most recent World Series champions.
The Dodgers, led by another stellar outing by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, blanked the Rangers 3-0 in the series opener on Friday night. First pitch on Saturday is scheduled for 4:05 PM ET on MLB Network, and all eyes will be on an intriguing duel between Dodgers rookie Roki Sasaki and Rangers veteran Nathan Eovaldi.
Both teams have clear postseason aspirations but have taken different paths in the early part of the season.
The Dodgers’ power-driven offense has led them to a strong start, while the Rangers have leaned more heavily on their pitching.
Let’s break down the matchup and deliver our best bets for this highly anticipated interleague showdown.
The Dodgers are the pick in this one, largely due to their offensive ceiling and favorable matchup splits against Nathan Eovaldi.
While Eovaldi’s surface-level stats look strong, a 2.55 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 24.2 innings, the underlying numbers aren’t quite as convincing. His expected ERA sits at 4.32, and he’s allowed a .276 xBA while ranking in the 26th percentile in average exit velocity. That’s a red flag when you’re about to face the league’s most power-packed lineup.
The Dodgers lead MLB in home runs and rank fourth in slugging, and their contact quality metrics are elite. They’re also seventh in barrel rate and lead the majors in fly ball percentage.
That’s a problem for a pitcher like Eovaldi, whose success hinges on inducing ground balls. While he’s typically stingy with walks, the Dodgers have enough patience and power to exploit mistakes when he falls behind.
Lifetime, Dodger hitters have performed fairly well against Eovaldi, hitting .263 with a .746 OPS. Freddie Freeman (10-for-36 with a HR), Mookie Betts (5-for-17), Teoscar Hernández (6-for-16 with a HR and 2 doubles) and Miguel Rojas (4-for-5) have all had success.
The lone weak spot? Shohei Ohtani, who’s just 2-for-17 with five strikeouts against the righty. However, he missed the 3-0 win in the series opener and is unlikely to play Saturday anyway, and with the depth of L.A.’s lineup, even if a key bat or two goes quiet, they won’t be held back.
On the flip side, Roki Sasaki’s MLB career is just getting started, but he’s flashed elite upside despite control issues. In his last two outings, he’s limited walks (2 in each start) and pitched deeper into games.
Right-handed hitters, which make up the majority of Texas' lineup, are hitting just .200 with a .555 OPS against him. Sasaki’s fastball has been tough to barrel, and his last start, a 5-inning, 1-run performance against the Cubs, was his most encouraging yet.
Texas has the third-worst on-base percentage at .280 and they are chasing pitches at the second-highest rate in baseball (31.6%). Their aggressive approach could actually work in Sasaki’s favor if he mixes pitches effectively early in counts.
Given the Rangers’ right-handed heavy lineup and lackluster production - so far - and Sasaki’s splits against righties, we’re backing the Dodgers’ deeper, more explosive lineup to come out on top.
While this matchup features two high-profile starting pitchers, there’s plenty of reason to believe we’ll see some run-scoring, and the value on the Over is strong.
Let’s start with the Dodgers. Even though Eovaldi has been effective in terms of run prevention, his expected ERA is over 4.00 and his batted-ball metrics suggest he’s due for regression. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are an elite slugging team that’s built to punish pitchers who rely on contact management. They hit the ball in the air and they barrel pitches at an elite rate.
On the other side, while Sasaki has impressive raw stuff, he’s still adjusting to the MLB level. His control remains a work in progress (13 walks in 13.2 innings), and his expected ERA is 4.87. Given his inability to work deep into games so far, going up against proven sluggers like Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Joc Pederson and Marcus Semien on the road, there’s a chance he gives up some early traffic.
This also feels like a good "get-right" spot for a couple of cold hitters. The Rangers and Dodgers both saw elite arms (deGrom and Yamamoto) in the series opener and were heavily subdued with three total runs scored.
Today’s matchup gives hitters a better chance to square things up and produce. If Sasaki continues to issue free passes and the Rangers’ contact-oriented approach can put balls in play, we could easily see them contribute 3-4 runs at minimum.
All things considered, this line feels a touch low for two lineups with significant slugging upside who are destined to bust out. Even with quality starters on the mound, there are enough cracks in both arsenals, and enough firepower at the plate to clear this number.
Few players have been hotter at the plate recently than Corey Seager, and he’s in a prime position to keep the streak alive against a rookie pitcher making just his fifth career start.
Seager enters riding a six-game hit streak, with seven multi-hit efforts in his last nine contests. He’s been locked in, and he’s always live to ambush a first-pitch heater and park it in the seats. Seager’s been dominating early in counts and when ahead in counts, squaring up pitches to all fields.
With Sasaki’s command still inconsistent, Seager has an excellent chance to do some damage in his first couple of at-bats.
Motivation shouldn’t be an issue either. Anytime a player’s former team is in town, there’s a little extra juice. Seager played seven seasons in Los Angeles and was a postseason hero for the Dodgers before signing with Texas. He’s been a huge contributor to the Rangers' success and is a focal point of their offense.
Sasaki has had more trouble with left-handed hitters so far — they’re hitting .231 with a .740 OPS against him — and Seager’s aggressive approach and high contact rate makes him the ideal hitter to take advantage.
Even if the Dodgers go to the bullpen early, Seager will have multiple chances against right-handers throughout the game.
Considering his form (now hitting .318 on the season with a .884 OPS), matchup splits and added motivation, this prop offers solid value and multiple paths to cash, whether it’s a couple hits, a big RBI swing or simply getting on base and scoring.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.
Los Angeles Dodgers | -105 |
Texas Rangers | -115 |
Run Line | TEX Rangers -1.5 |
Total | O/U 8.5 |
Max Muncy (LA Dodgers) | +350 |
Corey Seager (TEX Rangers) | +375 |
Adolis Garcia (TEX Rangers) | +375 |
Jake Burger (TEX Rangers) | +400 |
Freddie Freeman (LA Dodgers) | +400 |
Teoscar Hernandez (LA Dodgers) | +525 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.