The New York Yankees avoided the World Series sweep with a blowout Game 4 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Bronx.
The offense finally woke up as the Yankees lineup finished with 11 runs, nine hits, and three home runs against the Dodgers bullpen. Unfortunately for the Yankees, it won’t be another bullpen game from the Dodgers.
The probable pitchers for this crucial Game 5 matchup are Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees.
New York has been listed as the favorite with their ace on his home mound, but are the oddsmakers undervaluing the Dodgers? Here’s our expert’s preview and best bets for Game 5 of the World Series.
The Yankees weren’t able to beat Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Walker Buehler, but they were able to bash the Dodgers’ bullpen game for 11 runs. Los Angeles’ extremely thin postseason rotation has caused plenty of problems in October and Dave Roberts knew that Game 4 wasn’t going to be easy.
He made a surprising move to start the rookie Ben Casparius in Game 4 for his first career MLB start. Usually, Ryan Brasier had been the opening arm in the bullpen game followed by 6 or 7 different relievers. But last night looked different as Casparius was followed by several low-leverage relievers.
It seemed clear that Roberts didn’t want to waste his high-leverage arms once the Yankees took the lead in the middle innings and was willing to lose in order to save his best relievers.
That plan worked out because every high-leverage arm for the Dodgers is available after Jack Flaherty. Flaherty was the Game 1 starter in LA and put together a strong outing of just two runs and five hits allowed in 5.1 innings.
With that said, Flaherty looked even better than his stat line reads. He held the Yankees scoreless for the first five innings but a single by Juan Soto and then a mistake pitch to Giancarlo Stanton two batters later in the sixth inning ended his stellar outing. The bottom line: Flaherty looked great against the Yankees in Game 1.
It’s a rematch of the Game 1 starting pitchers since the Yankees are giving Gerrit Cole the ball. Cole looked great in Game 1 against the Dodgers with just one run and four hits allowed in six strong innings.
However, a trend has continued over from the regular season to the postseason. In eight regular season starts on the road, Cole had a 2.49 ERA with a .198 batting average allowed. He was phenomenal. But in nine starts at Yankee Stadium, Cole posted a 4.31 ERA with a .240 batting average allowed.
Those splits have continued into October considering Cole has allowed two runs, 10 hits, and no walks in 13 innings on the road this postseason. But in two postseason starts in the Bronx, Cole has allowed six runs, 13 hits, and six walks in 9.1 innings.
There’s a stark contrast between Cole’s performance on the road and at home, and unfortunately for him, Game 5 is in New York. Between Cole’s terrible splits at home and the Dodgers starting Flaherty with every high-leverage reliever available, the Dodgers should be crowned World Series Champions tonight.
The New York lineup exploded for 11 runs and three home runs last night. If you were a Yankee fan, it was good to see the offense finally break out of their extended slump and put together some good at-bats.
With that said, they scored 11 runs against Ben Casparius, Daniel Hudson, Landon Knack, and Brent Honeywell. Those are the back-end bullpen guys that are only used to eat innings.
In the previous 3 games, the Yankees lineup had been completely shut down by the Dodgers top relievers. New York should expect to see Brusdar Graterol, Alex Vesia, Ryan Brasier, Blake Treinen, or Michael Kopech after Flaherty. But before they can get to those arms, they have to deal with four or five innings from Flaherty.
The right-hander dominated the Yankees lineup in Game 1 and made only one mistake that ended up being a two-run home run. If he can put together a similar outing, the Yankees lineup is going to struggle to score even a couple of runs.
Cole is going to put together a decent outing, but I’m still expecting him to give up a few runs. The ace is fortunate to have an elite bullpen behind him that will likely use Tim Hill, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, and Luke Weaver in the second half of the game. The Dodgers offense has struggled against those arms in this series considering most of their runs have come against relievers like Jake Cousins and Nestor Cortes.
Both of these managers are going to manage Game 5 like a must-win game which means short leashes and high-leverage arms. With that in mind, I’m predicting a score around 4-2 in favor of the Dodgers, so I'm taking the Under.
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Los Angeles Dodgers | +125 |
New York Yankees | -150 |
Run Line | Yankees -1.5 (+140) |
Total | O/U 8.0 |
Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) | +230 |
Shohei Ohtani (LA Dodgers) | +255 |
Giancarlo Stanton (NY Yankees) | +300 |
Juan Soto (NY Yankees) | +390 |
Max Muncy (LA Dodgers) | +440 |
Freddie Freeman (LA Dodgers) | +460 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.