Game 2 of this 2024 NLCS rematch between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets takes center stage on Saturday night at 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX.
Game 1 was a marathon: after a 98-minute rain delay in the third inning, the Mets scored three in the bottom of the ninth off LA closer Tanner Scott to tie it. A game that started at 7:10 p.m. ET didn’t end until 1 a.m., with the Dodgers ultimately prevailing 7-5 in 13 innings.
Tony Gonsolin gets the start for the Dodgers, while David Peterson takes the mound for the Mets. There are multiple betting angles worth targeting, starting with the value in the money line.
Getting the Dodgers at even money against a lefty they’ve historically dominated is simply too good to pass up. Not only do the Dodgers feast on the 92 mph four-seam fastball/sinker combo Peterson throws, but across 93 at-bats against him, Los Angeles hitters are batting a ridiculous .400 with a 1.333 OPS, including seven home runs. Shohei Ohtani (8-for-13), Freddie Freeman (7 hits, 2 HR) and Will Smith (HR, double) have consistently torched Peterson.
Peterson’s 2025 ERA of 2.86 looks sharp on paper, but his expected ERA (3.99) tells a more realistic story. He’s been vulnerable to hard contact (12th percentile hard-hit rate), and right-handed hitters are slashing .255 AVG / .724 OPS against him this year. The Dodgers, stacked with righty bats like Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Teoscar Hernández, Enrique Hernández, Andy Pages and Tommy Edman are primed to take advantage.
Peterson has gotten the job done this year, going six innings, allowing two runs or fewer five times and allowing three runs or fewer in all nine starts, but this Dodgers lineup is a different beast.
Expect Los Angeles to pounce early and build a lead before turning things over to their bullpen. Even with bullpen injuries to top arms, Gonsolin’s strong splits against the Mets (.205 average allowed), plus a 1.8 road ERA in 2025, and Peterson’s struggles against the Dodgers make this even-money spot a strong value.
While Gonsolin has been steady in his return from Tommy John surgery, posting a 4.05 ERA in 20 innings across four starts, this is a matchup that screams Over, and the bullpen situation plays a big role.
The Dodgers’ top five right-handed bullpen arms are injured, and the unit has logged the most innings in baseball. Last night, following the rain delay, both teams were forced to the bullpen in the third inning in a game that went 13 innings. The Dodgers used seven of their eight bullpen arms, and many threw a lot of pitches. The Mets exhausted their entire bullpen.
Both starters could be asked to pitch deep into the game regardless of performance, simply because it’s unclear who will be available out of the bullpen. If Gonsolin can’t keep the Mets in check early, it will likely be because he gets bit by the long ball (has already allowed four) and left-handed hitters (.293 AVG and .871 OPS allowed to left-handed bats).
Juan Soto has already done damage against Gonsolin (triple, double), and the Mets’ left-handed bats have been solid against right-handed pitching this season. Combine that with Peterson’s risk of early trouble, and this could be a game where both lineups start stacking hits early and keep it going into the later innings.
Despite Peterson keeping the ball in the park, he allows a high volume of contact, and the Dodgers don’t need the long ball to rack up crooked numbers. With Ohtani, Freeman, Hernández and Smith all hot and producing versus southpaws, it’s easy to envision Los Angeles scoring four or five runs before the sixth.
There’s no better matchup on the board tonight than Will Smith vs. David Peterson, and this player prop is our favorite play of the game.
Smith has been an elite bat against left-handed pitching in 2025, hitting .379 with a 1.274 OPS, and he’s done significant damage against Peterson in particular, including a home run and a double across limited career at-bats. But what makes this prop even more appealing is how well Smith matches up against Peterson’s entire pitch mix.
Peterson leans on changeups, curveballs and sliders to induce chase and weak contact – pitches that Smith has mashed this season. He owns a .416 xBA vs. changeups, a .400 AVG vs. curveballs and a .421 AVG vs. sliders in 2025, making him one of the league’s best hitters against soft stuff.
With a ground ball rate under 35% and a chase rate under 20%, Smith forces Peterson to come into the zone, where he thrives. The Dodgers' No. 3 hitter vs southpaws is in a prime RBI spot following Ohtani and Betts, and no one in baseball has been better with men on to start 2025 than Smith. He also has multiple paths to hit this prop: base hits, run scoring or driving someone in.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.
Los Angeles Dodgers | +100 ML |
New York Mets | -120 ML |
Run Line | NY Mets -1.5 |
Total | O/U 9.0 |
Pete Alonso (NY Mets) | +265 |
Shohei Ohtani (LA Dodgers) | +325 |
Teoscar Hernandez (LA Dodgers) | +390 |
Mark Vientos (NY Mets) | +390 |
Juan Soto (NY Mets) | +400 |
Francisco Lindor (NY Mets) | +400 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.