Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Kansas City Royals roll into Yankee Stadium on Monday night to kick off a three-game series against the New York Yankees.

First pitch is at 7:05 PM ET, with the game airing nationally on MLB Network. The Royals (8-8) and Yankees (8-7) come into this one evenly matched in the standings, but this pitching matchup is a bit lopsided, and that could make all the difference.

Seth Lugo gets the ball for Kansas City, and the 35-year-old veteran has quietly been one of the most consistent arms in the AL since last season. Across his first three starts in 2025, he owns a 3.24 ERA despite underwhelming expected metrics.

On the other side, Carlos Carrasco toes the rubber for New York, and his struggles in pinstripes have been glaring. Through three starts, “Cookie” has posted a 7.71 ERA and given up four home runs in just 11.2 innings.

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees betting picks and predictions

Kansas City Royals Moneyline (+120)

This is a rare spot where the Royals are priced as +120 underdogs despite having the superior pitcher, and frankly, it doesn’t make much sense.

Carrasco has been a liability this season and hasn’t looked like a capable starter for quite some time, dating back to 2023. Over his last three seasons, he’s failed to post an ERA below 5.64 and holds a WHIP well over 1.50.

Seth Lugo, meanwhile, has picked up right where he left off last season when he posted a 3.00 ERA over 200+ innings and finished runner-up in the AL Cy Young voting. He’s been especially strong against the Yankees in his career, holding current hitters to a .200 average and a .605 OPS in 65 career at-bats.

Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Anthony Volpe are a combined 2-for-32 lifetime against him. And while the Yankees still have the power bats to make noise late, Lugo is more than capable of shutting down their lineup early and building a cushion.

Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the game’s best young players and a true MVP candidate for the Royals. Hitting over .300 to begin this season but lacking some of his signature home run pop so far, Witt Jr. and company will be looking to slug it out and punch back after last year’s playoff exit at the hands of the Yankees.

In three at-bats against Carrasco, Witt Jr. has two hits, including a home run. With New York struggling to find consistency at the plate in the last week and Carrasco trending toward another short outing, the Royals offer real value here.

Over 9.0 Total Runs (-105)

Even with Lugo on the mound, there’s good reason to like the Over in this one.

Yankee Stadium has played small early in 2025, with seven of the first nine games there reaching or exceeding nine runs.

That trend could continue, especially with Carrasco on the bump. The veteran has allowed 10 earned runs in just 11.2 innings and hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in any of his starts.

Kansas City may be near the bottom of the league in OPS, but they’ve got hitters with history against Carrasco.

Jonathan India is 2-for-5 with a homer and Salvador Perez has seen Carrasco plenty, going 8-for-33 lifetime. This could be a get-right spot for a Royals offense that hasn’t scored more than four runs since April 4th.

On the Yankees side, while they may struggle early against Lugo, Paul Goldschmidt, who is 7-for-11 against the righty, is a strong bet to contribute.

Even if the top half of the Yankees order gets shut down early, Kansas City’s middle relief, especially if they are up some runs early, is vulnerable enough to allow the Yankees to get back in the game somewhat.

This game could follow a familiar script. Royals build an early lead, Yankees chip away late. That mix should lead to plenty of scoring.

Paul Goldshmidt Over 1.5 Total Hits, Runs & RBIs (-125)

If you’re looking for a consistent, veteran bat to back in this game, it’s Paul Goldschmidt. The Yankees’ first baseman leads the team with a .357 batting average in 2025 and has been particularly dominant against the opposing starter in this clash.

In 11 career at-bats against Lugo, Goldschmidt is hitting .636 with two home runs and two walks.

With Judge struggling against Lugo and their best bat against the Royals in the ALDS sidelined (Giancarlo Stanton), Goldschmidt should continue to be the focal point of the Yankees offense.

He’s hit safely in seven of the Yankees’ last eight games and has four multi-hit games during that stretch. With the Yankees likely needing to rally late, he could easily hit this prop via a couple of knocks or a big extra-base hit with runners on.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees odds

Kansas City Royals	+120 ML
New York Yankees	-140 ML
Run Line	Yankees -1.5
Total Runs	O/U 9.0

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees player props

Player Home Run Odds

Aaron Judge (NYY)	+210
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC)	+375
Salvador Perez (KC)	+375
MJ Melendez (KC)	+475
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY)	+525
Jonathan India (KC)	+525

Read the latest MLB news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.