Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Game 1: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

After a wild and often unpredictable 2024 MLB regular season, the Wild Card round featured even more upsets across both the American and National Leagues. 

The most shocking result of the Wild Card round was certainly in Houston, as the Detroit Tigers continued their miraculous ride over the second half of the season into the playoffs with a 2-0 series sweep of the Astros on the road, including a four-run eighth inning comeback in Game 2 to secure the win.  

Over in the other American League matchup, the Kansas City Royals dispatched the Baltimore Orioles in a pair of tight, low-scoring games. The margins were very thin in both games, but the Royals simply produced the better at-bats when it mattered most.  

These teams last met in the postseason in 1980, but these organizations were massive rivals during the 1970s and early 80s. The Yankees are heavy favorites in Game 1 and the series as a whole, but the Royals have a bit of that unquantifiable postseason underdog magic that they also carried with them into back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015.

Let’s get into our expert’s predictions and best bet for Saturday’s Game 1 between the Royals and Yankees in New York. 

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees betting picks and predictions

New York Yankees -1.5 (+105)

This is not a series that many expected to see in the American League Division Series at the start of the regular season. However, there’s a reason that the Royals are in the playoffs, and it starts with their pitching. 

The Royals pitching was terrific against the Orioles in the Wild Card round, allowing just one earned run over two games, but the matchup gets a lot tougher this week against the likes of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton. If Kansas City gets behind early in this game on the road, it could get pretty late early in Yankee Stadium on Saturday. 

While Kansas City was terrific on the mound against Baltimore, the Royals offense was largely nonexistent as they only scored three earned runs over their two games at Camden Yards. That doesn’t bode well for Kansas City against the top seed in the AL, as the Yankees will give the ball to their ace Gerrit Cole, who was 8-5 this season with a 3.41 ERA.

Cole has yet to face the Royals this season, but his stuff profiles well against a lineup that is 20th in home runs, 19th in on-base percentage and 28th in walk rate this season. For his career, Cole holds a 4-1 record against the Royals with a 2.77 ERA in eight starts.

As of Friday, veteran starter Michael Wacha is expected to take the mound for the Royals in Game 1. Wacha went 13-8 this season with a 3.35 ERA, and he’s fared well against the Yankees in his career, posting a 2-1 record against New York with a 2.97 ERA over 11 starts.

However, the Royals have just a 2-5 record against the Yankees this season, and they were outscored by a whopping 42-24 margin in those seven games.

Home teams in Game 1 of the playoff are typically successful, so New York should build on that success in this matchup on Saturday. 

This Royals team has been a fun story, but seeing how they struggled to score runs against the Orioles, it’s hard to see them putting up much offense against Cole at Yankee Stadium in Saturday’s matchup.

New York has the advantage on the mound and certainly in the lineup, so our expert doesn’t expect being idle for nearly a week to throw them off much. For all of those reasons, our best bet in this game is backing the Yankees -1.5 at +105. 

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Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees odds

Kansas City Royals	+170
New York Yankees	-205
Run Line	NY Yankees -1.5
Total	O/U 7.5

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees player props

Player Home Run Odds

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC Royals)	+450
Salvador Perez (KC Royals)	+425
Michael Massey (KC Royals)	+475
Aaron Judge (NY Yankees)	+225
Juan Soto (NY Yankees)	+350
Giancarlo Stanton (NY Yankees)	+310

Read Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees ALDS schedule, start times, how to watch and pitching matchups on site.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.