Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

One second-half storyline to watch is the race for the American League West division crown between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners, and those teams begin a three-game series tonight. 

This has developed into quite the rivalry in recent years and with these teams separated by just one game in the standings, this series coming out of the All-Star break could prove to be pivotal in the race for the division title.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners betting picks and predictions

Houston Astros ML (-105)

Even though Seattle is sending out their ace in Luis Castillo (3.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) in this matchup, the value lies with the visitors on Friday.

On the surface, Houston starter Hunter Brown’s numbers (4.39 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) aren’t as attractive as his counterpart, but he has steadily improved throughout the course of the season after a horrendous April, so his numbers are a bit skewed in that regard.

In fact, Brown has recorded a quality start in six of his last seven outings, including four scoreless starts. 

The young right-hander also gets better throughout the game, posting a .295 OBA the first time through the order compared to a .225 during the third time through the lineup. Given that Seattle’s offense is ranked 22nd in wRC+ (runs created weighted by ballpark) against right-handed pitching, Brown should thrive in this matchup.

On the other side, there’s no doubt that Castillo is a quality pitcher, but Houston has the favorable matchup considering they perform well against right-handed pitching, ranking sixth with a 110 wRC+ against righties.

Furthermore, the Astros have been the much more reliable offense of late, with a top-10 wRC+ mark over the last month, compared to Seattle’s bottom-10 offense. 

All things considered, backing the Astros to win this game on the money line is our prediction for this AL West tilt. 

Over 7.0 (-120)

The Mariners offense has been one worth fading all season long to this point, but that doesn’t mean that we can recommend going under a total of just seven runs in this one.

Six of the last 10 games involving Seattle have cleared this number, including in Castillo’s last outing against the Angels.

Seattle’s bats can’t be counted on, but the Mariners should at least get a slight boost at home, allowing them to scratch off a couple of runs against Brown and the Astros bullpen.

We’ve already highlighted how Houston’s offense has performed over the past 30 days, and that momentum shouldn’t slow down anytime soon.

There are bats in the Houston lineup who routinely hit well against the Mariners and even Castillo. Look for the likes of Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena to keep up those strong lifetime numbers against the Seattle ace in this one.

For the season, Houston leads the league in team batting average and is a top 10 unit in OPS. Therefore, there aren’t many reasons on paper as to why the Astros can’t score at least four runs en route to a victory in this one.

Given how this game is being priced in the market, there’s also the possibility for extra innings in this contest, which would obviously provide more chances for additional runs to be scored. With that in mind, let’s take the over in this contest.  

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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners odds

Houston Astros	-105 ML
Seattle Mariners	-115 ML
Run Line	SEA Mariners -1.5
Total	O/U 7.0

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners player props

Player Home Run Odds

Yordan Alvarez (HOU Astros)	+235
Cal Raleigh (SEA Mariners)	+320
Jorge Polanco (SEA Mariners)	+450
Alex Bregman (HOU Astros)	+700
Jose Altuve (HOU Astros)	+700
Julio Rodriguez (SEA Mariners)	+525

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.