Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Houston Astros and San Diego Padres continue a three-game series with Hunter Brown and Michael King listed as the probable starters.

The two teams have just two more weeks before postseason and unless either team has a major collapse, they will be a part of October baseball.

Houston is several games up on the Mariners in the AL West, while the Padres hold the top Wild Card spot in the National League.

Let’s preview this matchup and get into our expert’s best bets.

Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres betting picks and predictions

Padres ML (-115)

King has been as good as advertised in his first season with the Padres. He was the centerpiece of the haul for Juan Soto in the offseason and he’s been a big reason for San Diego’s success in 2024.

He’s made 28 starts and owns a 3.06 ERA with a stunning 28.1% strikeout rate, but perhaps King’s biggest attribute is his durability.

There was some concern that King wouldn’t be able to go the length of the season since he’s making the shift from reliever to starter. However, King has actually been one of the only San Diego starters that hasn’t missed time this year.

Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish have both missed months, which has made King’s reliability even more valuable.

And although this is the most innings King has thrown in his professional career, he’s actually been getting better as the season has gone on.

He owns a 2.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 9 starts since the All-Star break and has limited opponents to just a .215 batting average with a .209 xBA.

The Astros are countering King with their own right-hander, Brown. The 26-year-old has had a solid season as he’s posted a 3.59 ERA with a 3.26 xERA in 29 outings.

Similar to King, he’s been even better in the second half of the season as his ERA dips to 2.26 with a 1.16 WHIP. He’s held hitters to just a .228 batting average with a .224 xBA.

However, the part that worries me is how well the Padres have hit right-handed pitching lately. The San Diego lineup ranks 7th in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ against righty pitchers in September.

Plus, it’s a small sample size, but Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, and Xander Bogaerts are a combined 3-for-7 against Brown in their careers. Add in home field advantage and I like the Padres to win the second game of the series.

Under 7.5 (-120)

Games at Petco Park have the tendency to stay below the total. In fact, 60.3% of games in San Diego have stayed below the posted total. This is primarily because of the heavy air in the night games and park dimensions that favors the pitchers.

So between a night game in San Diego and two rising stars on the mound, this game might only feature a handful of runs.

King has been phenomenal at home in 2024 as he’s limited hitters to a .221 batting average with a .644 OPS in 16 outings.

In his last 5 starts on his home mound, King has surrendered just 4 earned runs and 23 hits while racking up 40 strikeouts in just 29 innings.

The right-hander will also be even more rested than usual since he will be making this start on 5 days of rest instead of his normal 4.

Brown has a lot of similarities to King. Both right-handers pitch for a strikeout and not to contact, which has translated to a high strikeout and a slightly elevated walk rate.

King and Brown work around those walks with their high ground-ball rate because of their power sinkers and wicked curveballs.

Keeping the ball on the ground will be key since both teams have several power hitters that can add a run to the scoreboard in just one swing.

If King and Brown can work around the middle of the order, I could see this game finishing with just 4 or 5 runs.

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Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres odds

HOU Astros	-105
SD Padres	-115
Run Line	HOU Astros -1.5
Total	O/U 7.5

Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres player props

Player Home Run Odds

Kyle Tucker (HOU Astros)	+430
Alex Bregman (HOU Astros)	+630
Yordan Alvarez (HOU Astros)	+330
Manny Machado (SD Padres)	+520
Jackson Merrill (SD Padres)	+750
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD Padres)	+440

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.