MLB Home Run Derby: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Major League Baseball season will take a brief hiatus this week as the All-Star break festivities begin.

The schedule begins with the Home Run Derby on Monday which is followed by the All-Star Game on Tuesday, but for now, let’s just focus on the Derby.

It’s an exciting event that features eight of the best sluggers in the league on the same field, so let’s dive into our best bets for the competition.

MLB Home Run Derby betting picks and predictions

Gunnar Henderson to win (+475)

The Baltimore phenom will participate in the Home Run Derby before being the starting shortstop for the American League in the All-Star Game on Tuesday.

Henderson was the first player to announce his participation in the Derby and it wasn’t too big of a surprise since he’s launched 27 home runs in just 94 games. He’s had a huge power surge this season considering he hit just 28 home runs in 150 games in 2023. 

If you take a quick look at Henderson’s advanced metrics, it’s hard not to like his chances at Globe Life Field. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in barrel rate, and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, among other things.

But for Monday night, Henderson will get a steady diet of perfectly thrown fastballs. It’s just 326 feet to the right field pole which is eight feet longer than in his home park of Camden Yards, but the right field wall is just eight feet high compared to 21 feet in Baltimore.

The left-handed hitter will likely try to pull most of the pitches down the right field line and avoid going to center field.

As long as Henderson doesn’t tire himself out in the first round, he could be something of a dark horse despite his high regular-season home run total. Henderson is an athletic, young, and powerful hitter that should be able to make some noise in his first ever Derby.

Adolis Garcia to win (+500)

I also wanted to take a right-handed hitter in the Derby, and I landed on Adolis Garcia. There are several reasons for choosing Garcia, but the most important would be that he’s the hometown hero.

Garcia will represent the Rangers in his home park on Monday night which means he will be the crowd favorite of the local fans. 

Home-field advantage has certainly played a role in past Derbies with a hometown player having won the Home Run Derby twice since 2015.

Todd Frazier did it for the Reds in Cincinnati in 2015 and then Bryce Harper won it with the Nationals in D.C. in 2018.

The second reason for taking Garcia is the actual field itself. In the last three seasons, Globe Life Field has been ranked as the second most favorable park for home runs for right-handed hitters.

The only park that has been better for right-handed hitters is Dodger Stadium, but Globe Life Field is a close second. The Globe Life Field dimensions are generous for right-handed hitters since it is only 329 feet to the pole and offers a hitter-friendly corner that sluggers can wrap a home run around. 

Last but not least, Garcia is an extremely strong player. He ranks in the 89th percentile in barrel rate and 84th percentile in hard-hit rate this season. With slow fastballs coming down the middle, Garcia should be able to muscle plenty out of the park.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.

MLB Home Run Derby odds

Pete Alonso	+300
Marcell Ozuna	+375
Adolis Garcia	+450
Gunnar Henderson	+475
Bobby Witt Jr.	+500
Teoscar Hernandez	+1000
Jose Ramirez	+1200
Alec Bohm	+1600

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.