Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Detroit Tigers look to clinch a series win tonight against the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of their mid-May three-game series at Comerica Park.

This TBS Tuesday primetime matchup (6:40 PM ET) features two American League playoff hopefuls.

Boston came into this series on Monday hoping to build momentum in the AL East. Instead, they were blitzed 14-2 by a red-hot Tigers squad that exploded for a nine-run third inning and totaled 18 hits on the night. Seven Tigers had multi-hit games, including standout performances from Gleyber Torres, Trey Sweeney and Javier Baez, each collecting three hits. Detroit improved to an AL-best 27-16 with the win, while Boston slipped to 22-21.

The Tigers, who now have five double-digit scoring games in May, will look to stay hot at the plate against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, who carries an impressive surface stat line but comes with some clear regression indicators under the hood.

Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers betting picks and predictions

Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-105)

Detroit holds the best record in the American League, and can improve those numbers on Tuesday. After dismantling Boston 14-2 in the series opener, there's strong reason to back the Tigers again, especially considering the underlying vulnerabilities of Red Sox starter Bello.

Bello enters with a 2.01 ERA and a 2-0 record in four starts. While that sounds dominant on paper, advanced metrics suggest serious regression is looming. His expected ERA (xERA) of 5.56 is among the worst in baseball (12th percentile via Baseball Savant), and he's allowed a .317 average and a .321 xwOBA in 41 combined at-bats against the Tigers' current lineup. He's walking too many batters (12 BBs in 22.1 IP), not missing enough bats (just 13 strikeouts) and allowing hard contact at an alarming rate.

The Tigers' lineup, rejuvenated after a quiet series against Texas, now looks like one of the most balanced and dangerous in baseball. Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter all boast OPS marks north of .790 and have had success against Bello previously. Meanwhile, offseason addition Torres has added a veteran presence and is hitting over .300, while Baez has found new life in center field, hitting .313 with improved discipline.

Detroit's pitching plan tonight is unconventional. Lefty Tyler Holton will serve as the opener, giving way to right-hander Keider Montero. Holton has been stellar in his role over the past three seasons and provides a tricky look for Boston's impact lefties at the top of their lineup, including Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu. While Montero has been inconsistent, Holton's effectiveness could give Detroit an early edge in a bullpen-heavy game.

Simply put: the Tigers have the better lineup, a more balanced bullpen setup and home-field advantage.

At -105, they're a value pick with momentum on their side.

Over 8.5 Total Runs (-105)

With 16 total runs scored Monday, this matchup is clearly trending toward another high-scoring result. And the advanced stats, pitching matchup and lineup trends all support the Over again on Tuesday.

The Tigers and Red Sox rank sixth and seventh, respectively, in OPS, with Detroit checking in at .754 and Boston right behind at .744. While Boston relies heavily on its top trio, Alex Bregman (.952 OPS), Devers (.901) and Abreu (.941) – Detroit's offense is far deeper. They've gotten recent production from the top to the bottom of the lineup, with Baez, Sweeney and Dingler providing a spark in the lower third.

Bello has been great at inducing ground balls, but he has also struggled with control and hard contact. His lack of swing-and-miss stuff has allowed hitters to wait for errors, and this Tigers lineup has punished those mistakes in May. Carpenter, Greene and Torkelson each have at least nine home runs and are slugging over .470.

On the other side, Boston still boasts explosive offensive potential, and tonight's Tigers starter combo is untested over extended innings. Holton has been excellent, but this will be his first official start of 2025. Montero, who will likely take the bulk innings, carries a 4.15 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP – both susceptible to damage against a top-heavy Red Sox lineup.

TBS games often draw competitive, high-scoring affairs, and with hot weather and a hitter-friendly matchup on tap, Over 8.5 runs is well within reach.

Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBIs (+120)

Torkelson has quietly been one of Detroit's most consistent bats through the first quarter of the season. His breakout 2025 campaign includes 10 home runs, an .847 OPS and a much-improved approach at the plate, particularly against right-handed pitching.

Torkelson matches up well against Bello, having gone two-for-two in their limited head-to-head history. More importantly, Torkelson has feasted on fastballs this season, hitting .280 with four homers against heaters, while slugging .600 against breaking balls. That's notable considering Bello's fastball is his only effective pitch this year, with his off-speed and breaking stuff failing to generate whiffs or chases.

In the middle of a potent Tigers order, Torkelson should have plenty of chances to score or drive in runs. Given how many of Detroit's hitters are getting on base ahead of him and the likelihood of Bello struggling with command again, there's great value in Torkelson to collect at least two combined hits, runs or RBI.

He's been particularly dangerous against left-handed pitching (.962 OPS), but his .791 OPS vs. righties shows he's made serious progress on that front. Bello's low strikeout rate and poor whiff metrics play right into Torkelson's strengths.

At +120, this player prop offers strong upside and aligns well with our other picks.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers odds

BOS Red Sox	-115 ML
DET Tigers	-105 ML
Run Line	BOS -1.5 (+150)
Total	O/U 8.5

Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers player props

Player Home Run Odds

Wilyer Abreu (BOS)	+375
Rafael Devers (BOS)	+475
Alex Bregman (BOS)	+500
Kerry Carpenter (DET)	+525
Jarren Duran (BOS)	+575
Riley Greene (DET)	+625

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.