Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees renew their iconic rivalry Friday night under the lights in the Bronx.

First pitch is set for 7:05 PM ET on MLB Network and this will be the first head-to-head matchup between the two clubs in the 2025 season. 

There have been contrasting fortunes for the two teams so far this year, with the Yankees sitting top of the AL East with a 38-23 record, as well as one of the best run differentials in baseball at +99, while the Red Sox have struggled to a 30-34 record, sitting fourth in the division.

The Yankees are 20-10 at home this season and fresh off a low-scoring but successful three-game series against the Guardians, taking two out of three by scores of 3-2 and 4-0. 

Boston just dropped two of three to the Angels in a far more offensive set, surrendering 20 runs but managing to salvage a high-scoring 11-9 win in the finale. 

This matchup features two starting pitchers with a lot to prove: former Dodger and current Sox right-hander Walker Buehler against Yankees rookie Will Warren.

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees betting picks and predictions

Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-130)

There’s strong value in backing the underdog Red Sox to keep this one close. While Boston hasn’t been sharp on the road (13-18), the spread is priced attractively and there are signs that Walker Buehler is due for a bounce-back effort. 

Buehler was hit hard in his last outing, giving up 10 hits and five runs, but this is a pitcher who thrives under pressure, as evidenced by his World Series-clinching performance at Yankee Stadium with the Dodgers in 2024.

Buehler’s 6.00 ERA on the road this season is concerning, but his track record in big moments suggests he’ll rise to the occasion against a righty-heavy Yankees lineup. 

The 30-year-old has been excellent against right-handed hitters this year, and if he’s able to neutralize the likes of Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt, the Red Sox could keep this within a run or even pull off an upset.

Offensively, the Red Sox match up well against right-handed pitching. They rank ninth in OPS vs. RHP and will stack lefty bats like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and top prospect Marcelo Mayer, making things uncomfortable for a Yankees bullpen lacking effective lefty options beyond Tim Hill and Brent Headrick.

This game has all the makings of a tight battle.

Under 9.0 Total Runs (-120)

It might feel risky to take the Under when the Red Sox just wrapped up a 28-run series and the Yankees offense ranks at or very near the top of the league in pretty much every category. But this pitching matchup suggests a tighter contest than the total implies.

Both Buehler and Warren were rocked in their previous starts, which makes this a potential buy-low spot for pitchers who are better than their recent numbers indicate. 

Warren was shelled for seven runs in just 1.1 innings last week in Los Angeles, but he’s been much better at home. In four starts in the Bronx, he’s posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out 28 batters over 20 innings. He also owns a 3.21 ERA in night games.

On the other side, Buehler loves the big stage and has dominated in Yankee Stadium before. He’s especially effective against right-handed hitters, which is a good match for a Yankees team that has been noticeably weaker at the plate during night games this season (.760 OPS at night compared to .860 in day games). That trend adds further intrigue to the Under.

Each bullpen ranks in the top half of MLB, and if both starters bounce back, the relievers should be able to shut things down late. Boston also ranks just 13th in OPS on the road versus fifth at Fenway, suggesting a quieter night for their offense, with all the signs pointing to a lower-scoring affair than expected.

Will Warren To Record 7+ Strikeouts (+130)

If you’re hunting for a player prop with strong value, look no further than Will Warren to rack up the strikeouts.

Despite a rough outing in his last start, Warren has flashed electric stuff in his rookie season, with 69 strikeouts in just 52 innings. He had hit 7+ strikeouts in five consecutive May starts before last week’s blip, and four of those came in outings of fewer than six innings. He’s also been significantly sharper at home.

The matchup is ideal. Boston ranks third in MLB in strikeouts, behind only the Rockies and Angels. They also sit second in strikeouts against right-handed pitching and third in strikeouts on the road.

This is a lineup that can be overaggressive, and Warren has the swing-and-miss arsenal to take advantage.

Coming off a short start, Warren should be well-rested, and if he can settle in early, he’s got a great shot to reach 7 Ks again.

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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees odds

Boston Red Sox	+160 ML
New York Yankees	-190 ML
Run Line	NY Yankees -1.5
Total	O/U 9.0

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees player props

Player Home Run Odds

Aaaron Judge (NY Yankees)	+175
Rafael Devers (BOS Red Sox)	+265
Wilyer Abreu (BOS Red Sox)	+290
Trent Grisham (NY Yankees)	+350
Jarren Duran (BOS Red Sox)	+390
Cody Bellinger (NY Yankees)	+400

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.