Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

At 6:45 PM ET on MLB Network, the Boston Red Sox (25-26) welcome the struggling Baltimore Orioles (16-32) to Fenway Park for the opener of a four-game Memorial Day weekend series.

Boston sits in second place in the AL East, trying to stay afloat in a highly competitive division, while Baltimore has plummeted to last place and already dismissed manager Brandon Hyde.

This marks the fourth of 13 matchups between the division rivals this season and their first clash since early April.

Despite the standings disparity, Baltimore enters this series with a flicker of momentum after finally snapping an eight-game skid in extra innings against Milwaukee.

The O's bats came alive late in that one, scoring four runs in the 11th, highlighted by a clutch three-run homer from Adley Rutschman.

Now, with a reset under an interim manager and their top hitters starting to show signs of life, the Orioles could be primed to carry that energy into Fenway and deliver another upset against an erratic Boston starter in Lucas Giolito.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox betting picks and predictions

Orioles Moneyline (+105)

Baltimore may be bottoming out, but this matchup sets up well for the O’s to snag a rare road win.

They’re coming off an emotional, extra-inning victory that ended a brutal losing streak, and it was the type of offensive outburst that can carry over, especially for a young, talented lineup that’s been pressing.

Meanwhile, Giolito has been wildly inconsistent, particularly at home. The 30-year-old veteran has surrendered 12 earned runs over just 7.2 innings in his two Fenway starts this season.

While his fastball has retained some bite, his secondary offerings, especially his changeup, have been among the least effective in the league. His 9.88 ERA in night games, combined with his tendency to get hit hard early at home, is a major red flag.

The Orioles’ lefty-heavy lineup is well-positioned to capitalize. Cedric Mullins owns Giolito, going 8-for-13 with three doubles and a triple.

Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson both match up favorably with his pitch mix and, Ryan O’Hearn, despite a poor career mark against Giolito, had four hits Wednesday and is hitting over .300 this season.

If the O’s bats stay aggressive, they can chase Giolito early and avoid a battle of depleted bullpens late. Back the Orioles to take Game 1.

Over 9 Total Runs (-110)

Neither Cade Povich nor Giolito inspire much confidence heading into Thursday night’s start.

Povich, in his first full big-league season, has a 5.23 ERA and sits in the bottom percentiles in multiple advanced metrics. He’s allowing righties to torch him (.304 AVG, .876 OPS), and the Red Sox lineup is ready to platoon right-handed bats that crush lefties.

Rob Refsnyder, in particular, is 4-for-7 with a homer off Povich and owns a .960 OPS vs southpaws this season. Bregman (.991 OPS vs LHP) and Trevor Story (.874 OPS vs LHP) are also prime candidates to do damage.

Povich faced Boston back in April, giving up three runs on five hits and two walks in just 4.1 innings. He needed 94 pitches to get 13 outs. That’s been a theme - he doesn’t go deep and he gives up hard contact.

Even if the Boston weather remains chilly with light rain in the forecast (the same type of weather that influenced a low-scoring series against the Mets the last three days), it’s unlikely to impair either offense against these arms.

The Red Sox bullpen may be rested, but Baltimore had to use five of their top relievers yesterday, meaning they’ll push to create separation early.

Both teams rank top-10 in OPS against the opposing starter’s handedness, and with hitters on each side heating up, we like the total to go over.

Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)

Mullins is the clear value play in the player prop market. Not only is he hitting .286 with a .696 slugging percentage against fastballs and .292 with a .458 slug against changeups, but, as mentioned in our money line analysis, he has absolutely owned Giolito over his career. 

Baltimore is expected to deploy him in a prime spot in the batting order and the O’s will be aggressive early against Giolito, who has been especially vulnerable in the first few innings.

With Mullins’ gap-to-gap power, one extra-base hit could cash this bet early. Even a multi-hit game wouldn’t be surprising given the matchup.

The left-handed center fielder has also been effective on the basepaths and could turn a single into two bases.

Given his historical dominance against Giolito, his comfort against fastball-heavy arms and his ability to adjust to the changeup, the safe bet is trusting his bat to do the work.

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox odds

Baltimore Orioles	+105 ML
Boston Red Sox	-125 ML
Run Line	Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
Total	O/U 8.5

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox player props

Player Home Run Odds

Gunnar Henderson (BAL Orioles)	+390
Adley Rutschman (BAL Orioles)	+500
Cedric Mullins (BAL Orioles)	+550
Herston Kjerstad (BAL Orioles)	+575
Alex Bregman (BOS Red Sox)	+600
Rafael Devers (BOS Red Sox)	+600

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.