Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The rubber match of a hard-fought three-game set between the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-23) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (30-19) takes place Wednesday night at Chavez Ravine, with the winner claiming the series edge.

This has been a bit of a surprisingly even season series so far, with each team winning three of the first six matchups, and Arizona looks far from overmatched despite trailing LA in the NL West standings.

Arizona took Game 1 in emphatic fashion, clubbing three two-run homers and jumping on the Dodgers early in a 9-5 win. But the Dodgers responded in a tight one on Tuesday, winning 4-3 in 10 innings behind a brilliant start from Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a three-run rally in the 10th, capped by a walk-off sac fly from Max Muncy. 

The finale features a rematch from less than two weeks ago: Corbin Burnes (3-1, 2.56 ERA) vs. Dustin May (1-4, 4.43 ERA). 

Burnes blanked LA over seven innings in that May 10 meeting, a 3-0 Arizona win, but May held his own, surrendering just two runs in 6.2 innings pitched. This will be Burnes’ seventh career appearance at Dodger Stadium, and while his overall numbers there are ugly (0-3, 6.04 ERA), recent performances suggest he’s starting to tame the beast.

With the Dodgers’ pitching staff stretched thin with 14 on the injured list, May might need to go deeper than usual if LA hopes to avoid another mid-game bullpen scramble. As Arizona’s offense continues to scrap and grind, there’s plenty of intrigue, and betting value, to break down for this May 21 series finale.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers betting picks and predictions

Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-140)

The Dodgers enter the series finale as moderate home favorites. They’ve been hit hard by pitching injuries, including ace arms like Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow plus their top five high-leverage right-handed relievers, but they still have the edge in this matchup, especially in the batter’s box at Dodger Stadium.

Dustin May has taken a few lumps this month (5.19 ERA in May), but he’s shown flashes of his old form since returning from a long injury layoff. Most notably, he was solid against these Diamondbacks just 11 days ago.

He’s historically fared well against Arizona, holding their hitters to a .217 average and .594 OPS across 69 plate appearances. 

That said, Corbin Carroll (2 doubles, 1 triple in 11 ABs) and Josh Naylor (4-for-11) have had some success against him. If May can work around those two lefty threats and lean into his elite ground-ball profile (85th percentile), the Dodgers will likely be in a position to win.

Expect him to pitch to contact and use his elite ground-ball rate to manage a lineup that was largely shut down until late innings on Tuesday night. May doesn’t need to be elite – he just needs to get through six innings with three earned runs or fewer.

On the flip side, Corbin Burnes was lights out in his last outing vs. LA, but doing it again at Dodger Stadium is no guarantee. The Dodgers lead MLB in batting average (.268), rank second in OPS (.819), and are deadly at home, where their OPS jumps to an MLB-best .873. 

Additionally, Burnes has a 3.8 road ERA compared to a 1.48 home ERA this season, and, more importantly, his underlying numbers have not been excellent this season. Despite a 2.56 ERA, per Baseball Savant, Burnes is throwing to just a 4.27 expected ERA (xERA). The walk rate is up, and while the chase rate and ground ball rate are great, and the offspeed pitches have been working, Burnes has been hit hard, and he's been lucky that some of those hard-hit balls haven’t been translating into hits and runs. 

While Burnes has been much sharper in recent visits to Dodger Stadium (12 IP, 2 ER over his last two starts in LA), the park hasn’t been kind to him overall. This Dodgers offense is historically deep, and it’s currently the most healthy it’s been in a couple of weeks.

If Burnes isn’t on his A-game, that underlying regression may flare up against this loaded lineup. 

While Arizona is scrappy and ranks top five in OPS on the road, they may not find it as easy to grind out runs against May and a motivated Dodgers squad coming off a momentum-building win.

Something about the exact same pitching matchup playing out less than two weeks later has us thinking the game could go in a completely different direction than a 3-0 final score. With the Dodgers looking to avenge being shutout by Burnes on their home field to win a series and close out a nine-game homestand before traveling cross-country, we like the Dodgers’ chances. 

Arizona has played the Dodgers tough all year, but with LA coming off a much-needed win, Burnes’ spotty history at Dodger Stadium, and the Dodgers' offensive depth, look for them to back May with strong run support and take the series.

Over 9.0 Total Runs (-120)

Both of these teams are capable of putting up huge numbers in a hurry. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks rank top-three in MLB in both home runs and OPS, and notably, they are the top two teams in OPS against right-handed pitching. The D-backs lead the majors with an .818 OPS vs. righties, while the Dodgers sit close behind at .814.

Even with Burnes and May on the mound, the hitting conditions and offensive form of both clubs favor the Over.

Burnes may have thrown seven shutout innings vs. LA last time out, but even there, the Dodgers still made solid contact — he just avoided extra-base damage. Add in the fact that Arizona’s bullpen is shaky (and already overworked from Tuesday night’s 10-inning game), and Burnes may not have much cushion if he comes out early.

On the other hand, May doesn’t miss a ton of bats. While this works when his sinker is sharp, the Diamondbacks have several hitters who can run or beat out infield hits — Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo and Alek Thomas all fit that profile. If May’s stuff looks hittable in contrast to Yamamoto’s dominance from Tuesday, Arizona’s offense could wake up early.

We see the Dodgers getting more out of May than the D-backs get out of Burnes. But, considering the injury-riddled and taxed state of the Dodger bullpen, the D-backs going to high-leverage relievers on back-to-back nights, and the fact that both teams feature elite offensive units, back-end chaos suggests a strong possibility of a high-scoring affair. 

The weather looks perfect for offense in LA, and with plenty of live bats on both rosters, this game should feature plenty of runs.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers odds

Arizona Diamondbacks	+120 ML
Los Angeles Dodgers	-140 ML
Run Line	LA Dodgers -1.5
Total	O/U 9.0

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles player props

Player Home Run Odds

Shohei Ohtani (LA Dodgers)	+220
Corbin Carroll (ARI Diamondbacks)	+350
Ketel Marte (ARI Diamondbacks)	+375
Eugenio Suarez (ARI Diamondbacks)	+375
Freddie Freeman (LA Dodgers)	+500
Teoscar Hernandez (LA Dodgers)	+500

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.