After an exciting first half of the 2024 season, the MLB All-Star Game is finally here, as the game’s best players take to Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas to play in the annual midseason classic.
The All-Star Game has typically been an evenly-matched affair, and while that looks to be the case on paper once again, there is some surprising historical precedent that favors one team on Tuesday.
Let’s get into our predictions for this year’s MLB All-Star Game.
The trends and data around the All-Star Game are pretty fascinating considering that both teams are typically putting forth the best players from each league. There shouldn’t be extended periods of dominance from either league, and yet this has been a fairly one-sided game in recent decades.
Historically, this has been an event that the American League has owned. In fact, dating back to 1988, the AL has dominated the All-Star Game, going 27–7–1 in that span. With a winning percentage that clears 77% over a 35-year sample size, it’s hard not to look into backing the American League in this game, especially since they are only being priced as slight favorites, so there’s still value to be had.
Most of the attention is going to be focused on the lineups in this game, and while the National League boasts the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Bryce Harper, the American League has a slightly deeper talent pool from top to bottom.
Gunnar Henderson, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are likely three of the game’s 10 best players at the moment and those are just three of the elite hitters in the AL lineup.
MLB batting average leader Steven Kwan should also be in the starting lineup, plus the dynamic duo of power hitters in Yordan Alvarez and Joe Ramirez.
While the starting pitching matchup is fairly even, there’s also the matter of the bullpen arms, which definitely favor the American League side. Emmanuel Clase and Mason Miller are in the midst of terrific seasons, and they should be able to deal with any trouble the National League bats present in the later innings.
We can expect this game to be close, but ultimately taking the American League on the money line and riding with the historical trend is our best bet.
On the subject of trends, the All-Star Game has historically been a haven for unders this century, including in last year’s contest, which only produced five total runs. In fact, the under is an astounding 14-1-2 over the last 17 installments in the All-Star Game.
There should be no reason to go away from that trend in this contest, as both starting pitchers are having tremendous seasons for their respective teams.
Paul Skenes has taken the baseball world by storm and is having what could go down as the best rookie campaign for a pitcher in league history. His electric stuff has befuddled hitters all season long (1.90 ERA, 89 strikeouts in 66.1 IP), and that shouldn’t change on Tuesday, even against some of the best in the game.
On the other side, Corbin Burnes is expected to get the ball for the American League, and his numbers are nearly as impressive with a much larger sample size. Burnes has a 2.43 ERA amid excellent advanced metrics across the board, which bodes well for his matchup against Ohtani, Harper, Freddie Freeman and the rest of the National League starters.
With pitching typically winning out over offense in this event, the under at the current number is our game total prediction.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.
American League | -115 ML |
National League | -105 ML |
Run Line | American League -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.