Michigan State vs. Ole Miss: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The men's college basketball tournament continues Friday with an exciting round of 16 matchup between No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels and the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans.

Both teams arrive to the last 16 with strong performances in the first two rounds, but in contrasting styles.

Ole Miss survived a late rally from North Carolina in the first round, securing a 71-64 victory before dismantling No. 3 seed Iowa State 91-78 in the second round.

The Rebels were dominant in that contest, leading by as many as 25 points with eight minutes remaining.

Michigan State, meanwhile, has started slow in each game but heated up for dominant second-half performances. The Spartans took down No. 15 seed Bryant 87-62 in the first round before grinding out a 71-63 win over No. 10 seed New Mexico.

This game will feature Michigan State's elite three-point defense taking center stage against an Ole Miss team that has been lights-out from deep in the tournament.

Michigan State vs. Ole Miss betting picks and predictions

Michigan State -3.5 (-110)

Michigan State enters this matchup as a 3.5-point favorite and there are multiple reasons to believe the Spartans can cover this spread.

The biggest factor is depth. Tom Izzo’s squad regularly runs a nine-man rotation, with 10 players averaging at least 12 minutes per game throughout the season.

Even in the tournament, the Spartans have continued to lean on their depth, with Tre Holloman, Carson Cooper, Coen Carr and Frankie Fidler all logging at least 16 minutes off the bench in both games.

In contrast, Ole Miss relies on a much tighter eight-man rotation, with seven players seeing 20+ minutes per game.

Their freshman point guard Eduardo Klafke has played sparingly in the tournament, logging under 10 minutes in each contest. While this hasn’t hurt them yet, Michigan State’s ability to stay fresh and rotate bodies could prove decisive in the later stages of the game.

Ole Miss’ success in the tournament has largely come from its three-point shooting, going a combined 19/39 (48.7 percent) from beyond the arc in its first two games.

Leading scorer and top three-point shooter Sean Pedulla has been outstanding, putting up 20 points in each tournament game while also tallying 13 total assists and six total steals.

Junior forward Malik Dia has also stepped up, scoring 18 points and adding eight rebounds against Iowa State, showcasing his ability to score inside and outside.

However, Michigan State possesses the best three-point defense in the country, holding opponents to just 27.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

While they allow a high volume of three-point attempts, they contest shots extremely well, making it difficult for teams to sustain hot shooting. If the Rebels cool off even slightly from deep, it will have a tough time keeping pace with the Spartans.

Another key advantage for Michigan State is its rebounding. The Spartans dominated the glass against Bryant (+25 rebounding margin) and won the rebounding battle against New Mexico as well.

Ole Miss, on the other hand, is not a strong rebounding team, which, on the defensive end, could lead to Michigan State creating second-chance opportunities and controlling the pace of the game.

Michigan State’s ability to get to the free-throw line should also play a significant role. The Spartans shoot 77.6 percent from the charity stripe, and against New Mexico, they had 18 more free-throw attempts than the Lobos.

The Rebels play an aggressive style of defense, which often leads to fouls. If Michigan State capitalizes on this, they could control the tempo and add to their scoring total at the line.

While Ole Miss has flexed offensive firepower, Michigan State’s depth, rebounding and defensive prowess should allow them to take control in the second half.

The Spartans have had their share of tournament success under Izzo, and this game sets up well for them to cover the 3.5-point spread.

Over 144.0 Total Points (-110)

While Michigan State is often associated with strong defensive play, this game has the makings of a higher-scoring affair.

Both teams like to push the pace when given the opportunity and Ole Miss’ offensive strengths align well with Michigan State’s defensive vulnerabilities. One of the best ways to attack the Spartans is to spread the floor, take advantage of transition opportunities and get to the rim - the Rebels have the personnel to do exactly that.

They have six capable shooters who can create their own shots and put the ball on the floor, making them a tough cover. They also have a high rim-and-three rate, meaning they prioritize both three-pointers and attacking the basket.

Michigan State, while elite at defending the three-point line, can be more vulnerable inside. Teams that can generate fast-break points, create points off turnovers and capitalize at the rim have found success against the Spartans.

In their first two tournament games, New Mexico won the points-in-the-paint battle against the Spartans 42-36 and Bryant managed 34 points in the paint despite not getting out in transition.

On the flip side, Michigan State should have no problem scoring against an Ole Miss defense that gambles for steals and is prone to fouling. The Spartans thrive on assisted buckets, and when teams get over-aggressive like the Rebels do, Michigan State finds easy baskets off backdoor cuts and ball movement.

In the halfcourt, Ole Miss does a great job protecting the paint, but Ole Miss’ lack of rebounding and Michigan State’s size advantage will allow them to clean up missed shots and create extra possessions.

While Michigan State has struggled shooting from deep (just 31 percent from three), they have the ability to win at the free-throw line and on the offensive glass.

If Jase Richardson and Jaden Akins can knock down a few timely perimeter shots, the Spartans should have enough offensive firepower to push this game above the total.

With Ole Miss looking to spread the floor and generate open three-point looks, and Michigan State likely dominating the rebounding battle and capitalizing on second-chance points and free throws, backing Over 144.0 points is a strong play.

Read more College Basketball betting picks and predictions on site.

Michigan State vs. Ole Miss odds

Ole Miss	+140 ML
Michigan State	-165 ML
Spread	Michigan State -3.5
Total Points	O/U 144.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.