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The American Express: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The PGA Tour heads to the US mainland for the first time this year as the West Coast Swing begins with the American Express, which is staged across three venues in La Quinta, California.

This pro-am tournament has undergone several makeovers over the years and has been known, among others, as the Bob Hope Classic, Humana Challenge and CareerBuilder Challenge, before Amex took over the sponsorship in 2020.

The courses in rotation have also varied but the current line-up - the Stadium Course at PGA West, La Quinta Country Club, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West - has been in operation since 2016, although La Quinta was dropped in 2021 due to the pandemic.

The 156-man field rotates across the three venues from Thursday to Saturday before a 54-hole cut is made and the final round continues at the Stadium Course. 

Typically a low-scoring affair, Nick Dunlap set a tournament-record 29-under-par winning score in last year's Amex. None of the three venues are particularly taxing for PGA Tour professionals, who will need to carry a hot putter if they're to post a similarly low 72-hole total.  

Dunlap is back to defend his title but it's US PGA and British Open winner Xander Schauffele who is the betting favorite - the Californian is +800 as he bids to claim a home-state title.

The American Express betting picks and predictions

Sam Burns to win (+1800)

Schauffele has finished third in back-to-back editions of this event and will be hard to beat if he's close to his best but he flopped in the Zozo Championship in his final start of 2024 and was only 30th of 60 competitors on returning in the Sentry at Kapalua a fortnight ago.

A return to his home state could eke out improvement but the world No.2 will have his sights set on bigger tournaments to come - including the Farmers Insurance Invitational next week in his native La Jolla - and this looks like the right time to take him on.

Of the favorites, Sam Burns is worth keeping onside in an event which he has threatened to win on more than one occasion, including when finishing sixth behind Dunlap last year.

Unlike Schauffele, Louisiana man Burns returned in positive fashion in the Sentry, finishing in eighth place despite starting with a one-under 72, a sluggish opening round which always had him playing catch-up in an event which Hideki Matsuyama won at 35 under.

Burns signed off the 2024 PGA Tour season by finishing fifth, second and 12th in three FedEx Cup playoff events, and five starts in the Amex have resulted in form figures of 18-6-MC-11-6.

Burns's last PGA Tour win, in the final edition of the WGC-Matchplay in 2023, came at Austin Country Club - a venue designed by Pete Dye, the man responsible for the Stadium Course at PGA West. 

At his best on the Bermuda he encounters this week, Burns is a terrific putter who can contend for this title once more.

Nick Dunlap to win (+4500)

Dunlap stunned the PGA Tour a year ago when claiming this title as an amateur but it would be no surprise if he were to double up 12 months later.

The 21-year-old is an immense talent who showed his victory was no flash in the pan when he won for a second time at the Barracuda Championship in July, before going on to finish fifth in elite company in the first playoff event.

Dunlap struggled to make much impact at Kapalua but a 10th-placed finish at the Sony Open, where he putted superbly, will have left him full of confidence for this title defence.

Patrick Fishburn to win (+5000)

Another man brimming with self-belief is Patrick Fishburn, who has become a regular PGA Tour contender over the last few months and could be poised to make the breakthrough this week.

Fishburn missed the cut in the 2024 Amex but he's been excellent from July onwards, finishing third in the Barracuda and the Procore Championship, both in California, and returning with a sixth-placed finish in the Sony Open on Sunday.  

Read the latest golf news on site.

2025 The American Express outright odds

Xander Schauffele

+800

Justin Thomas

+1400

Sungjae Im

+1400

Patrick Cantlay

+1600

Sam Burns

+1800

Tony Finau

+2200

Tom Kim

+2800

Wyndham Clark

+3000

Si Woo Kim

+3300

Max Greyserman

+3500

Cameron Young

+4000

J.J. Spaun

+4000

Harry Hall

+4000

Read all you need to know about The American Express on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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