Arnold Palmer Invitational: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The four-week Florida Swing continues as an elite PGA Tour field heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the latest Signature Event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Acquired by the King in 1974, Bay Hill first hosted this iconic event in 1979 and has been the tournament's home ever since. Palmer's name was used in conjunction with the event for the first time in 2007 and a red sweater has been handed to the champion since 2017, the year after his passing.

A typical Florida layout, this 7,466-yard par-72 is dominated by water, meaning precision is a must from tee to green because any errant shots are likely to meet a watery grave.

Bay Hill has a habit of separating the best from the rest – Tiger Woods won there eight times and both the 2022 and 2024 tournaments went the way of Scottie Scheffler, who is +320 in his bid to win for the third time this year.

Arnold Palmer Invitational betting picks and predictions

Ludvig Aberg to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational (+1400)

Scheffler dominated last year's tournament, carding a masterful Sunday 66 – the lowest final round in the field – to beat Wyndham Clark by five shots. 

He deserves his spot at the head of this year's market, although the odds are on the short side.

Bay Hill plays to Scheffler's strengths but he has been making more errors this year and while that is partly down to the hand surgery which delayed his start to the season, it's no surprise to see him regress slightly on last year's remarkable ball-striking numbers.

Rory McIlroy, an Arnold Palmer champion in 2018, is rated most likely to dethrone Scheffler but the Northern Irishman did not putt well at the Genesis Invitational last time, finishing nine shots adrift of Ludvig Aberg.

Indeed, it's Aberg who looks a better bet as he bids to follow up the magnificent Torrey Pines victory with a quick-fire Signature Event double.

While two appearances at Bay Hill have only resulted in 24th and 25th place, this is a course which usually demands experience and Aberg, now a fully fledged member of golf's elite, can step up on what he's shown in previous starts at the venue.

Fifth in the Sentry to start the year, Aberg battled illness at both the Farmers Insurance Open and the Pebble Beach Pro-Am but he was right back to his best in California last time out and this test of ball-striking represents another opportunity for him to prove his credentials.

Tommy Fleetwood to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational (+2800)

Europeans have a good record in this tournament – McIlroy, Francesco Molinari and Tyrrell Hatton have all won it since 2018, while Matt Fitzpatrick, Lee Westwood and Viktor Hovland have all finished runner-up – and Tommy Fleetwood could add his name to that list.

Fleetwood's failure to break through on the PGA Tour is one of golf's great mysteries but this is as suitable an assignment as any for a top-class ball-striker who will surely win in the US at some stage.

The 34-year-old, who leads the PGA Tour in strokes-gained approach this year, was 22nd at Pebble Beach when he didn't putt well, then fifth at the Genesis Invitational last time out.

A regular Bay Hill competitor, Fleetwood was 10th in the 2017 Arnold Palmer, third in 2019 and tenth in 2021 and it will be no surprise if he takes high rank on this year's leaderboard.   

Shane Lowry to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational (+5000)

Another Euro star catches the eye in the shape of Shane Lowry, who did well to finish 11th at the Cognizant Classic given he'd have preferred tougher conditions in Palm Beach Gardens.

The Irishman finished third in last season's Arnold Palmer Invitational, comfortably his best finish at a course which had outfoxed him in previous visits, and this time he returns with his approaches fine tuned.

Lowry, a runner-up behind his close friend McIlroy at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month, should relish this tough tee-to-green examination.

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational outright odds

Scottie Scheffler	+320
Rory McIlroy	+850
Ludvig Aberg	+1400
Xander Schauffele	+1600
Collin Morikawa	+1800
Justin Thomas	+2000
Hideki Matsuyama	+2500
Patrick Cantlay	+2500
Tommy Fleetwood	+2800
Russell Henley	+4000

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.