Miami Grand Prix: Picks, Predictions and Odds

A McLaren driver leads the standings after the first five races of the 2025 F1 season but it's not the British team's expected team leader Lando Norris.

Norris' Australian teammate Oscar Piastri has been the star of the early part of the season, winning three races with Norris and world champion Max Verstappen taking one each.

Piastri took full advantage of Norris's crash in the final qualifying session in Saudi Arabia two weeks ago to forge 10 points ahead in the championship. There is nothing between the McLaren drivers in the betting for the fourth race at Miami International Autodrome, the street course outside Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

It's a sprint-race weekend for the second time this season, so there will be only one practice session before sprint qualifying on Friday.

Miami Grand Prix betting picks and predictions

Oscar Piastri to win (+137)

Lando Norris should get some good vibes on his return to Miami this weekend as it was the scene of his breakthrough victory last season.

McLaren has continued to make excellent progress since that fantastic upgrade package that landed in Florida last season, but their British driver has not been able to maximise his car's potential since winning the opening race in Australia.

Norris has finished second, second, third and fourth in the last four rounds and that's clearly disappointing as he has struggled to get comfortable with the feel of the 2025 car.

Aside from sliding off the circuit when a downpour struck late in his home race in Melbourne, Piastri has done very little wrong this season and he looks the more reliable selection for Sunday's race in the Sunshine State.

Piastri was third behind Verstappen and Norris in Japan, but took the checkered flag first in China, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to give him a matching total of five career wins with Norris.

Verstappen has shown his talent at times, not least with his Suzuka victory, but sometimes his car's shortcomings have been too much to overcome, as demonstrated by his sixth place in Bahrain. This could be another tough weekend for the Dutchman.

The Red Bull star won the first two races in Miami as well as the 2024 sprint race and took pole last year before finishing in an unlucky second place to Norris, but he could struggle to match that this time.

The Red Bull car is clearly off the pace in medium-speed corners, and the ground Verstappen loses to McLaren in the early part of the lap could be too much to overcome.

Ferrari, and Lewis Hamilton in particular, has not had the start to the season it would have wanted and Mercedes may again throw down the strongest challenge to the top three drivers. 

George Russell to finish 3rd (+240)

Piastri, Norris and Verstappen are separated by only 12 points at the top of the championship, but Mercedes' George Russell is only 14 points behind the reigning champion and has a 26-point lead over Charles Leclerc in fifth.

The British driver has finished in the top five at every race this season with three podium finishes, and he may be capable of finishing third for the third time in 2025 in Miami.

Russell has gone well at the track before, improving from 12th on the grid to fifth in the race in 2022 and finishing fourth after starting sixth in 2023, finishing ahead of then-teammate Lewis Hamilton each time.

Last year's race was tough for both Mercedes drivers but the car has been stronger at most tracks this time around and often improves as the weekend progresses.

Carlos Sainz to finish in the points (+100)

Williams is fifth in the Constructors' Championship standings after a double points finish for Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon in Saudi Arabia, and the Spanish driver could add another top-10 finish in Florida.

Albon made the stronger early impression as the established driver in the team but the former Ferrari man finished ahead for the first time in Jeddah and could continue to progress.

Sainz finished third and fifth twice in the first three Miami races for Ferrari and while he is now driving for a midfield team, he often shows up well at street circuits and also has a terrific record in the United States, finishing second in Austin and third in Las Vegas last season.

Miami Grand Prix outright odds

Lando Norris	+137
Oscar Piastri	+137
Max Verstappen	+500
George Russell	+1400
Charles Leclerc	+1800
Lewis Hamilton	+3300
Kimi Antonelli	+6600
Yuki Tsunoda	+20000

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.