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Miami Grand Prix: Picks, Predictions and Odds

F1 has its second successive sprint-race weekend in the United States this week as the field assembles for the Miami Grand Prix.

This is the third running of the Florida event outside the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens and world champion Max Verstappen is seeking a hat-trick after winning each of the first two races on the street course.

Verstappen leads the championship standings again as he chases a fourth straight world title but his failure to finish in Australia means that he leads his Red Bull team-mate Sergio Perez of Mexico by only 25 points.

Miami Grand Prix betting picks and predictions

Sergio Perez to finish second +130

Verstappen has won all four of the races he has completed this season and is the red-hot favorite to remain the only F1 driver to win in Miami with odds of -1200 for a third triumph in Florida.

The Dutchman won by 'only' 5.3 seconds last year but that does not tell the whole story as he had started ninth on the grid after failing to set a time in the final qualifying session.

Even so, he had the pace to overtake all eight cars that started in front of him even though all of them completed the race.

Ferrari showed up well in the inaugural Florida event in 2022, finishing second and third in the race after locking out the front row in qualifying, but Carlos Sainz Jr. and Charles Leclerc were a disappointing fifth and seventh respectively last year.

The Ferraris are third and fourth in the championship standings after their one-two finish in Australia and appear the most likely team to give Red Bull a battle at the front this weekend as the track should suit their car better than the McLaren or Mercedes.

Even so, Verstappen's Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez has a solid chance of finishing second in the race and has value at plus-money odds of +130.

The Mexican goes particularly well at street courses, with three of his last four wins coming on them in Monaco, Singapore and Azerbaijan. 

Checo has raced his way onto the podium in four of this season's five races, finishing second in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Japan, and has a strong opportunity to pick up another top-two finish.

Fernando Alonso top 6 finish +138

McLaren impressed in the last race in China, with Lando Norris finishing second to Verstappen, but there is mixed news for supporters of the British team this week.

Norris and team-mate Oscar Piastri are expected to receive car upgrades, but Miami is not a track where they are likely to be seen at their best. The McLaren performs exceptionally well in fast corners but the Florida circuit mostly consists of slow turns and long straightaways. However well McLaren fares this week, it should be much better on other tracks. 

Like McLaren, Mercedes is bringing updates to Miami in the hope of racing closer to the pace after slow starts to the season for Lewis Hamilton and George Russell. The British pair are yet to finish on the podium in Miami and the expected high temperatures could offset any gains they make from their car's new parts.

Aston Martin impressed in Miami last year with Fernando Alonso qualifying on the front row of the grid and finishing third in the race. While he may not achieve those heights this time given the increased competition, a third top-six finish of the season should certainly be in his sights.

Alonso finished fifth in Saudi Arabia and sixth in Japan, and while he tends to qualify in a higher position than his car is able to sustain in the race, grabbing another prominent starting spot would set him up well to stay in the top six.

Miami Grand Prix outright odds

As mentioned above, Verstappen is the overwhelming favorite at -1200 odds to win Sunday's race with his Red Bull teammate Perez next in the odds list at +1100.

Following them is McLaren's Norris at +1800 with Ferrari pair Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc both at +2000 odds to win.

Then there is a gap to Hamilton and Russell at +4000 to win, followed by Piastri at +5000 and Alonso at +8000.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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