Italian Grand Prix: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The 2024 F1 season looks to be heading for a tense title battle over the final nine races of the season after McLaren's Lando Norris turned up the heat on world champion Max Verstappen in recent races, and the battle continues at Monza this weekend.

The world champion Max Verstappen still has a clear 70-point lead in the standings after finishing second in his home event but has now gone winless for five straight races.

Can Verstappen get back to the top at Monza, or will the other teams continue to shine?

Italian Grand Prix betting picks and predictions

Lando Norris to win (+100)

Lando Norris cruised to an unexpectedly comfortable victory in the Dutch Grand Prix last week, finishing more than 22 seconds clear of the field and securing a 26th point of the weekend by recording the fastest lap of the race as he crossed the finish line.

The McLaren driver's success extended the winless run of world champion Max Verstappen to five races as he struggled with the balance of his car.

The Dutch star's second runner-up finish during that time at least limited the damage in the standings, and Norris still needs to gain an average of almost eight points per race in the remaining nine races to overhaul him.

Norris has taken pole at two of the last three races and, having won Verstappen's home race, he would no doubt love to quieten the crowds again at the home of Ferrari.

Verstappen has won at Monza in the last two years but the track has produced some unusual results and five different teams have won at the circuit known as the Temple of Speed over the last six seasons.

Norris was runner-up to team-mate Daniel Ricciardo in a McLaren one-two three years ago and while he had to wait a lot longer for his first career win than seemed likely at that point, his second success in the Netherlands could lead to several more this season.

Charles Leclerc each-way (+1100)

Mercedes were not as strong as expected last week after winning three of the previous four races, with George Russell and Lewis Hamilton finishing seventh and eighth at Zandvoort, but Ferrari's Charles Leclerc impressed to take third position and could throw down a strong challenge to McLaren in his team's home race.

It was the man from Monaco's second straight podium finish after he inherited third place in Belgium following race winner Russell's disqualification. Leclerc showed good pace to move up from sixth on the grid.

The Ferrari cars had some minor updates on them last week but a bigger package is coming this weekend and it could propel the scarlet cars closer to the front of the field.

Leclerc has had some strong results at Monza in the past, giving Ferrari their first home win for nine years there in 2019 and finishing fourth, second and fourth at the historic track in the last three seasons.

With a potentially improved car at his disposal this weekend, he could really give the home fans something to cheer about with another podium finish at least.

Alex Albon points finish (-150)

Williams had a weekend to forget in the Netherlands with American driver Logan Sargeant having a huge wreck in the third practice session, while Alex Albon's race was ruined when he was disqualified from the qualifying session for a technical infringement. 

The team have often been seen at their best at low-downforce, high-speed circuits in recent seasons, though, and Albon can target a top-10 finish.

The former Red Bull driver qualified an impressive eighth at Zandvoort, showcasing the potential of the car after a much-needed upgrade package, but then had to start from the back of the grid after his car failed post-qualifying checks.

Albon was able to gain five places in the race to finish 14th and should be fighting it out further forward than that this weekend.

He finished sixth at Monza in his second race for Red Bull after being promoted from the Alpha Tauri team in the middle of the 2019 season and was seventh for Williams last year after qualifying sixth.

Italian Grand Prix outright odds

Lando Norris	+100
Max Verstappen	+275
Oscar Piastri	+600
Charles Leclerc	+1100
Carlos Sainz	+1400
George Russell	+1800
Lewis Hamilton	+1800
Sergio Perez	+6600

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.