Belgian Grand Prix: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

As we continue through the European section of the 2024 F1 season, the drivers don’t have too far to travel as the F1 circus moves from Hungary's Hungaroring to Belgium's Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps.

McLaren recorded their first 1-2 finish since the 2021 Italian Grand Prix, but it was not pole sitter Lando Norris who stood on the top step of the podium after a thrilling 70 laps around the Hungaroring.

Teammate Oscar Piastri took his maiden Grand Prix win instead, as Norris obeyed orders to let him pass after gaining first place because of the team’s decision to pit the British driver first.

McLaren have become the team to beat on the grid these past few races because of their strong team ethic and clear thinking in the heat of battle.

So will Red Bull respond as Max Verstappen returns to a track where he has dominated with three-straight victories from 2021-23, including a storming effort from the back of the grid in 2022?

Belgian Grand Prix betting picks and predictions

Winning nationality - British (-175)

Dutchman Verstappen’s task has been made that bit more difficult by the likelihood that he will take a big grid penalty at Spa.

Red Bull announced on the Friday ahead of the Spanish Grand Prix that they were replacing several power unit components on Verstappen’s RB20.

Among the new components was a new internal combustion engine (ICE), a new turbocharger (TC), a new motor generator unit-heat (MGU-H), and a new motor generator unit-kinetic (MGU-K).

Each component was the fourth such element used by Red Bull on Verstappen’s car this season.

Per multiple reports, Verstappen is getting a new ICE for the Belgian Grand Prix and, as this is the fifth new one in 2024, under Article 28.3 of the FIA Sporting Regulations, he will face a 10-place grid penalty this weekend.

This news plays into the hands of the other leading contenders, three of whom are British and enjoying successful seasons.

Norris, who clinched his maiden F1 victory in Miami earlier this year, gained some ground on Verstappen with his second-place finish in Hungary.

He ranks as the reigning world champion’s closest challenger in the Driver’s Championship right now.

Lewis Hamilton, who ended his victory drought at Silverstone earlier this month, backed that result up with another podium finish last time out and Mercedes’ reliability issues now appear to be in his rearview mirror.

And there is George Russell, the winner in Austria recently, who set the fastest lap at the Hungaroring as he bounced back from an unfortunate retirement in his home British GP.   

All three ought to be there or thereabouts come the chequered flag in Belgium.

Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium (+150)

After a couple of years in the relative F1 wilderness, Hamilton has been a model of consistency again this summer.

The 39-year-old has finished no lower than fourth since his seventh-placed showing at Monaco in May.

Having placed no higher than sixth through the first eight races of the year, the Briton has subsequently finished fourth in Canada, third in Spain, fourth in Austria, first at Silverstone and third in Hungary.

He also loves racing at Spa, where he has won four times previously - in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2020.

Hamilton set the fastest lap time in last year’s Belgian Grand Prix and still holds the record for the fastest qualifying lap at the circuit from when he claimed pole position in 2020.

Three or more race leaders (-150)

The Belgian Grand Prix is rarely short on drama, with the last few editions having regularly seen the lead change hands.

That was true of last year when Charles Leclerc began on pole before being overtaken on the first lap by Sergio Perez.

The Mexican later ceded the lead to his teammate Verstappen, who went on to clinch his hat-trick of wins at the circuit.

The year before was no less interesting, with pole sitter Carlos Sainz maintaining his early advantage until lap 11, when Perez briefly hit the front.

Again, the Red Bull driver could not make it stick as Verstappen quickly took over at the front and went on to claim victory.

Recent history suggests another nip and tuck affair could be on the cards this Sunday, with the fact that there is no one driver dominating at the moment being another reason to back three or more drivers to be leading at some stage of the 44-lap race.

Belgian Grand Prix outright odds

Lando Norris	+100
Max Verstappen	+350
Oscar Piastri	+350
George Russell	+1000
Lewis Hamilton	+1100
Charles Leclerc	+3300
Carlos Sainz Jr.	+4000
Sergio Perez	+4000

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.