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Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5: Picks, predictions, odds and player props

The Oklahoma City Thunder knotted things up at 2-2 on Monday night behind a transcendent performance by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Dallas Mavericks were in cruise control for large portions of Game 4 and yet stumbled in the final frame just enough for the Thunder to pull out a shocking 100-96 victory.

As we look ahead to a pivotal Game 5 on Wednesday night, here are two picks I like based on what we’ve seen in this highly competitive series.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 betting picks and predictions

Mavericks ML (+150)

The Mavericks should, by all rights, be up 3-1 right now. They did incredible work to take the Thunder out of their offensive game completely in Games 3 and 4 and had a commanding lead for much of the game on Monday night.

It took several things going incredibly poorly for the Thunder to ultimately steal the win.

The Mavericks went 12-23 from the free throw line in Game 4. That’s a hair above 52%, which is right around the range it makes tactical sense to intentionally hack an opposing player to force them to line like the Thunder did in Game 3 to Derrick Lively. For the Mavs to miss 11 free throws in a game they lost by four is painful, but it’s also not predictive.

Luka Doncic also struggled to just 51% true shooting and a piddling 22 points. Even though Doncic is clearly bothered by a nagging knee injury, he’s proven capable of much better than that in this series, including in Game 3 when he had a hyper-efficient 29 points on 21 shots.

Kyrie Irving also failed to come through as their clutch time scorer. Kyrie has been the most reliable closer in the NBA playoffs, consistently coming through with either the big shot or the critical pass in clutch situations. In Game 4 that well suddenly ran dry.

If any one of those things had flipped in favor of the Mavericks, they win the game and the Thunder are on the ropes right now. While you don’t get partial credit for ifs, ands, or buts in the playoffs, it does mean that Dallas is in a stronger position than it might appear.

Game 5 will be harder for the Mavericks, but their defensive recipe has proven to be repeatable. The Thunder just have not been able to score as a team against Dallas, and it took Shai going nuclear from the midrange for OKC to win on Monday night.

The Mavericks should be closer to even odds or a little better to win Game 5. Getting them at +150 is great value.

PJ Washington Over 15.5 Points (-110)

Though I’d argue that the Mavericks have had better opportunities to score overall, the Thunder have also largely executed their defensive game plan too.  

That has meant making someone other than Kyrie or Luka beat them on offense. They’re selling out on the rest of the Mavericks' to ensure that they can dim Dallas’ twin superstars. While not every Mavs player has met the moment on that end, PJ Washington has risen to the occasion with aplomb.  

Along with Daniel Gafford, Washington was one of the trade deadline acquisitions that transformed the Mavericks’ season. I was among many who were skeptical of Washington’s fit alongside Doncic, as PJ had not played meaningful NBA basketball in some time and even in the low-pressure Charlotte environment had struggled to hit 3-pointers.  

For the season Washington is at just 32% from downtown, and as such the Thunder were all but daring him to shoot. PJ has responded by blitzing them for 51.4% from downtown on 9.3 attempts per game.  

Now that OKC has begun to close out harder, Washington has been unlocked as a driver too. PJ is averaging 21.8 points per game in the series, but even that is underselling it. He played just 26 minutes in Game 1 but has clocked 40 or more in every game since — in those three games he’s up to 25.6 points per game.  

Washington is the ultimate play finisher for Dallas, and he should continue to get plenty of chances to score as the Thunder work to take away Luka and Kyrie.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NBA on site.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 odds

DAL Mavericks

+150 ML

OKC Thunder

-180 ML

Spread

OKC -4

Total

O/U 213.0

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 player props

Player points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC Thunder)

O/U 31.5

Kyrie Irving (DAL Mavericks)

O/U 21.5

Jalen Williams (OKC Thunder)

O/U 19.5

PJ Washington (DAL Mavericks)

O/U 15.5

Chet Holmgren (OKC Thunder)

O/U 14.5

Daniel Gafford (DAL Mavericks)

O/U 9.5

Read the latest NBA news on site.

Odds displayed within this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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