There had been plenty of shocks in the Mubadala DC Open before there were three more in the quarterfinals, which have seen Taylor Fritz as the last seed standing going into the semis.
The third seed had to survive a match point too against compatriot Alex Michelsen before prevailing in a third-set tiebreak, edging a close contest 6-1 3-6 7-6 (6).
Fritz's reward is a last-four meeting with fellow American Brandon Nakashima, who stunned top seed and defending champion Alex de Minaur 7-6 (5) 6-4.
Ben Shelton, seeded two, saw his luck run out in a third successive three-set ding-dong battle, this time coming out on the wrong side in a 6-4 5-7 4-6 defeat to Chile's Alejandro Tabilo.
That came after fourth seed Lorenzo Musetti was also sent packing in another three-set battle, despite powering through the first set. Rising Spanish star Rafael Jodar won just one game in the opening set but showed his powers of recovery to triumph 1-6 6-1 6-4.
Brandon Nakashima vs. Taylor Fritz betting picks and predictions
Taylor Fritz -1.5 Games (-138)
Taylor Fritz has not had the easiest of years so far, slipping down to 10th in the world rankings, but still reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon at the start of last month and has not done too badly on his return to action.
The 28-year-old overpowered Zizou Bergs and Kamil Majchrzak in straightforward fashion, beating both 6-3 6-4, before he survived a nervy last-eight clash against Michelsen, despite having made a blistering start.
Fritz will not be expecting an easy ride in the last four with Brandon Nakashima having accounted for defending champion De Minaur in the quarterfinals, particularly with all of his compatriot's opponents so far ranking higher than any of the three he has faced up to this point.
Nakashima has also beaten Fritz twice in the past, albeit one was an exhibition back in 2019, but he did win their penultimate clash on the hard courts in Cincinnati. However, that was in 2024 and went to a third-set tiebreak, while Fritz enjoyed a comfortable two-set win in Dallas in February and can repeat the dose in Washington.
Fritz's big serve came under pressure against Michelsen in the last round but his nerve ultimately held up when it mattered most and that powerful weapon can help him through to the final.
Nakashima has been relatively clinical with his break-point opportunities up to this point, but hasn't faced a serve quite of the caliber of Fritz, and the third seed can ultimately make his class count.
Nakashima has faced more break points than he has created which has not been the case for Fritz, who can cover -1.5 games to progress to the Championship match.
Under 24.5 Games (-120)
While two very tightly contested sets would scupper this bet as well as a third set most likely, backing under 24.5 total games looks appealing, particularly given Fritz's overall record against Nakashima.
Both players have won two of their three matches in two sets at this tournament so far, while seven of the last nine matches involving Fritz have been won in straight sets.
Throw in the fact that Fritz won the pair's most recent meeting 6-3 6-4, as well as another head-to-head triumph by the same score at Indian Wells in 2021, and backing the under on the game total looks worth siding with.
Nakashima is obviously playing well but he has converted seven of 10 break-point opportunities in three matches in this tournament, averaging a little over three per match, and that just may not be enough against Fritz to take this clash beyond two sets.
Under 24.5 Aces (-120)
It is almost a given that Fritz will fire down a raft of aces and while none of his three matches have passed the total so far, Nakashima has the quality to add to the tally.
Nakashima has served 22 aces in his last two games but that doesn't necessarily translate to at least 25 between the pair on Saturday night.
While Fritz's big serve is a key factor in backing him to win this contest, he doesn't need to in order to win, having fired only eight in his opening win which came in relatively comfortable fashion.
A two-set match also limits the chances for aces while there were only 20 in the most recent meeting between the two - a game in which there were only three double faults too.
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
