United States vs. Serbia Men’s Basketball: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

We are into the medal rounds in men’s basketball at the Olympics in Paris. That means the four remaining teams are two consecutive wins away from the gold medal and one more win away from a guaranteed medal.

The semifinals on Thursday pit the United States against Serbia, and in the other match, host France plays against Germany. 

While France vs. Germany is expected to be competitive, Team USA – as usual – is a massive favorite over the Serbs. 

Will the gold-medal favorites take care of business, or can Nikola Jokic lead his underdog side to an historic upset?

Let’s take a look at the odds and best bets to be made for Thursday’s showdown between the United States and Serbia.

United States vs. Serbia betting picks and predictions

Serbia +17 (-110)

It is true that a minor miracle would be required for Serbia to win this game, but asking the underdogs to cover a bloated 17-point spread should not be too much – even though they lost to the United States 110-84 in the opening group-stage contest. 

On the bright side for Jokic and company, that encounter was competitive for a half; Serbia trailed 25-20 after one quarter and 58-49 at halftime before things got a bit out of hand in the third quarter. 

Kevin Durant and Devin Booker combined to go a ridiculous 9-for-10 from three-point range, which is marksmanship that almost certainly can’t be repeated.

Serbia has since played well, thumping Puerto Rico by 41 points and South Sudan by 11 before coming back from 25 points down to stun Australia in overtime in the quarterfinals. 

This is not a one-man team we are talking about, nor is it even a two-man show with Jokic and Bogdan Bogdanovic. 

Six different players are averaging at least 8.0 ppg during these Olympics, including third-leading scorer Vasilije Micic at 13.3 ppg. In the quarterfinal win over Australia, six players on Team Serbia scored in double-figures.

There is no denying that Team USA is playing well and boasts the far superior roster. However, there is only one basketball to go around and head coach Steve Kerr has to deal with the problem – albeit a good one – of doling out playing time. 

Expect the Americans to prevail, but covering is a different story.

Under 188 total points (-110)

An under bet correlates nicely with Serbia covering the spread, because the underdogs know they have to limit possessions as much as possible against a superior opponent.

It’s something they failed to do in the group stage, so they will make a conscious effort to slow down the pace of play in this rematch.

Serbia’s defense has at least been decent since its opening loss to the Americans. Head coach Svetislav Pesic’s squad allowed 66 points to Puerto Rico, 85 to South Sudan and 82 in regulation against Australia.

Although the United States has consistently been scoring more than 100 points, they have been facing porous defenses – units worse than Serbia’s in the last three games.

Stephen Curry hasn’t been able to throw it in the ocean so far in Paris (4-for-20 from deep); unless he heats up, the Americans probably won’t entirely light up the scoreboard.

A total points line of 188 is on the large side (France vs. Germany is set at 157.5, for example), giving bettors all the more reason to take the Under.

Nikola Jokic Over 20.5 points (-115)

In the biggest game of the Olympics to date, you know Jokic is rarely going to come off the floor.

The Denver Nuggets superstar went for 20 points against Team USA in the group stage – and that was despite logging a modest 30 minutes and making only one of six three-point attempts. He exceeded this 20.5 number against both South Sudan and Australia.

Although this prop does not necessarily correlate with the Under, this game won’t automatically be a high-scoring affair if Jokic is productive. After all, the United States can still win this game with relative ease if it lets Jokic go to work but contains all of Serbia’s role players.

United States vs. Serbia odds

United States	-2800 ML
Serbia	+1300 ML
Spread	United States -17
Total points	O/U 188.0

United States vs. Serbia player props

Player Points

LeBron James (USA)	O/U 15.5
Kevin Durant (USA)	O/U 14.5
Anthony Edwards (USA)	O/U 12.5
Stephen Curry (USA)	O/U 10.5
Nikola Jokic (SRB)	O/U 20.5
Bogdan Bogdanovic (SRB)	O/U 17.5

Read United States vs. Serbia: How to watch, TV Channel, streaming, start time, injury report and stats on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.