France vs. Germany Men’s Basketball: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

After meeting in the group stage, France and Germany will now clash in the semifinals of the men’s basketball competition at the Olympics in Paris.

Germany won the first game 85-71, but with France’s center Rudy Gobert recovering from minor finger surgery, the hosts have since adjusted in terms of strategy and lineup.

Will Germany repeat its dominant performance and move on to the final, or will France, buoyed by their home crowd, rebound with a big win? Read on for our predictions and best bets.

France vs. Germany betting picks and predictions

France +4.5 (-110)

France pulled off an upset in the quarterfinals, defeating Canada 82-73 despite Rudy Gobert playing less than four minutes. 

Many assumed his reduced playing time was due to his finger injury, but France’s head coach Vincent Collet explained that the team opted to play smaller matchups. 

This strategy paid off, as shooters Isaia Cordinier and Guerschon Yabusele combined for 42 points (6/11 from deep). 

Even with Victor Wembanyama struggling (2/10), France’s stifling defense, highlighted by three steals each from Wembanyama and Cordinier, proved effective.

In contrast, Germany had an easy 76-63 win over Greece to remain unbeaten. 

In their first matchup against France, Germany’s NBA backcourt duo, Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder, led the way with 52 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds combined. 

France kept the game close outside of a disastrous second quarter where Germany outscored them 24-9. Gobert played 18 minutes in that game, contributing four points and four blocks but only one rebound.

France’s superior defense can pressure Germany into turnovers, which is where Germany often struggles. 

With a revised game plan, home-court advantage and a motivated Wembanyama, expect France to push Germany down to the wire.

Under 156.5 Total Points (-110)

The first meeting ended with a total of 156 points, which aligns with the current rematch total. 

While Germany has an explosive offense that excels in transition and perimeter shooting, France’s defense is well-equipped to limit Germany’s scoring, especially with the advantage of having seen them play once already. 

Expect Germany’s three-point shooting to regress slightly compared to the first game, and for France to control the tempo better, starting with slowing down the aggressive Schroder. 

This will be a challenging task, but France’s defense is up to it and the Under should come into play as a result.

Dennis Schroder Over 26.5 Points and Assists (-120)

Schroder tallied 35 points + assists in the first game against France. Despite expecting France to better control the matchup, a 10-point drop-off in his combined points and assists line here feels excessive. 

Schroder is a veteran with extensive experience in high-stakes NBA games. Even in front of a hostile French home crowd, he should be about 75 percent as effective as in game one. 

His aggressiveness and playmaking ability can help him clear this line, even if he turns the ball over and shoots less efficiently. 

Schroder attempted 17 shots in the first meeting, indicating sufficient volume for scoring. Additionally, he handles the ball for a significant portion of every possession he’s on the floor and should play a prominent role once again.

France vs. Germany odds

France	+165 ML
Germany	-200 ML
Spread	Germany -4.5
Total Points	O/U 156.5

France vs. Germany player props

Player Points

Franz Wagner (GER)	O/U 20.5
Dennis Schroder (GER)	O/U 18.5
Victor Wembanyama (FRA)	O/U 17.5
Evan Fournier (FRA)	O/U 10.5
Guerschon Yabusele (FRA)	O/U 10.5
Daniel Theis (GER)	O/U 7.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.