Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

After finishing as runners-up to the Las Vegas Aces last season, New York Liberty, who finished 32-8 overall and 16-4 at home, are primed to get over the hump in 2024. 

New York closed the regular season by winning six of its final eight games, but that does include a 78-67 defeat in the finale at home to the Atlanta Dream.

Atlanta won three straight to close the season and earn the eighth seed on the final day. The Dream go into the playoffs with a 15-25 overall record, including a meager 7-13 on the road. The Liberty are rightfully heavily favored to advance. 

Below are our experts’ picks and predictions for the contest.

Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty betting picks and predictions

New York Liberty -12 points (-110) 

New York took three of four this season from the Dream. However, they lost once at home, and won by only six the other time the two teams matched up at Barclays Center.

The Liberty should be sufficiently motivated to show that the regular season finale was simply an oversight. 

New York was only 5-15 against the spread at home, but is 12-7 in its last 19 games overall, and 4-2 ATS in its last six against Atlanta. The Liberty are second in the league with 85.6 points a game, third in the league with 76.5 points allowed per game, and possess a league-best 9.1 point differential this season.

Our experts see the Liberty reverting to earlier results against the Dream, which included 17-point and 21-point victories on the road in June. Look for New York to make a statement in its playoff opener and cover this 12-point spread. 

Total Under 156.5 points (-110)

Atlanta has been strong defensively all year, allowing just 79.8 points a game: it’s the offense that hurts their chances.

The Dream scored a league-worst 77 points per game this season. That number is not likely to improve against the Liberty given that Atlanta averaged less than 74 points per game in four meetings with New York this season.

Our experts see New York doing enough to cover the spread, while still keeping the total under 156.5 points. 

Breanna Stewart over 20.5 points (-110)

Stewart led the Liberty and finished fourth in the WNBA in scoring at 20.4 points per game. She bumped those numbers up in the second half, averaging just over 22 points per outing in the Liberty’s final 15 games. 

In New York’s first three games against Atlanta, Stewart averaged 21 points per game. Like her teammates, Stewart took her foot off the pedal in the regular-season finale, scoring 16 points.

Don’t expect a similar result this go-around. Look for Stewart to set the tone and lead the Liberty in a playoff opening win over Atlanta, scoring more than 20.5 points in the process. 

Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty odds

Atlanta Dream	+550
New York Liberty	-800
Spread	NY Liberty -12
Total Points	O/U 156.5 points

Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty player props

Player points

Rhyne Howard (ATL Dream)	O/U 15.5
Allisha Gray (ATL Dream)	O/U 15.5
Tina Charles (ATL Dream)	O/U 15.5
Brianna Stewart (NY Liberty)	O/U 20.5
Sabrina Ionescu (NY Liberty)	O/U 16.5
Jonequel Jones (NY Liberty)	O/U 13.5

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