5 Key Matchups in the 2025 NBA Finals

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in the 2025 NBA Finals, set to begin on Thursday, June 5.

The Thunder, led by head coach Mark Diagneault, dominated in the regular season with a league-best 68-14 record. Star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earned the regular-season MVP Award for his efforts, as he led the league in scoring.

Indiana is more of a surprise to see at this stage. Coach Rick Carlisle's team went 50-32 for a fourth-placed finish in the East, but they've reached a new level in the playoffs as no team has matched their shooting efficiency.

With just a few days until the NBA Finals begin, let's look at five key matchups that will play a major role in deciding the series.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton

The point guard battle will draw all the headlines, and for good reason. OKC's Gilgeous-Alexander is the current MVP, while Haliburton has raised his game this postseason. Each side relies on its floor general to both start and finish offensive sets.

The two players also have different skill sets: SGA likes to drive to the hoop and either finish at the rim or draw a defender and pass to the open man, while Hali utilizes his teammates' relentless off-ball movement to create scoring opportunities for himself and others.

Haliburton is averaging 18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 9.8 assists to 1.9 turnovers this postseason; SGA is posting 29.8 points, 5.7 boards, and 6.9 assists to 2.3 turnovers.

SGA attempts a postseason-high 20.2 drives per game, and he generates 13.7 points per game and 1.7 assists per game from those actions. He also runs the pick-and-roll effectively, averaging 12.3 points from 9.0 shots per game when coming off a ball screen.

The Pacers average a league-high 25.8 points per game in transition this postseason — just 0.5 more points than the Thunder in such scenarios — and Haliburton is at the heart of their run-and-gun style. No team covers more ground on offense than the Pacers, who run 10.1 miles per game on the offensive end, per NBA tracking stats.

Both guards are at the core of their respective teams' style of play. The question is, whose style will win out?

Look for the Thunder to try and draw switches on their ball screen plays to create mismatches for SGA and his typical screener, center Isaiah Hartenstein. The Pacers will look to get out on the fast break to make it harder for OKC's all-world defense to impact their shots. Whoever can play to their strengths more often will benefit on the scoreboard.

Bench vs. Bench

Depth has been pivotal for both teams on their respective playoff runs. Eleven Pacers have played in at least 12 of Indy's 16 games leading up to the Finals, while OKC has seen 12 players appear in at least eight of their 16 playoff games.

That's a major change from the tight, seven- or eight-man rotations we've seen in recent years from, for example, the reigning champion Boston Celtics or the 2023 champion Denver Nuggets.

Both Indy's and OKC's benches have been among the most effective in the playoffs. Indy is fourth among the 16 teams to make the playoffs with 35.4 bench points per game this postseason, while OKC is sixth with 33.4 bench points per game.

When looking at net rating, which shows a team's scoring margin per 100 possessions, the Thunder bench is +5.5 while the Pacers bench is -1.1.

The teams are evenly matched in terms of bench offensive rating (55.6 for Indiana; 54.7 for OKC), but the Thunder bench allows 7.6 points fewer than the Pacers bench. OKC reserves Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace each average over 1.0 steal per game this postseason, which helps Thunder coach Mark Daigneault keep the defensive pressure up when his starters rest.

Carlisle will have to find a way to push the pace and catch the Thunder defense napping, which will make his team hard to guard. He has done a good job of mixing starters and bench players to give opponents different looks throughout this postseason, but outplaying OKC's league-best defense is the ultimate challenge.

Pascal Siakam vs. Jalen Williams

Pascal Siakam won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP Award, and he's averaging 21.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.1 steals while shooting 53.7 percent overall and 46.3 percent from beyond the arc.

Jalen Williams is second on the Thunder in scoring this postseason with 20.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.6 steals while shooting 45.7 percent overall and 31.8 percent from three.

Both players are vital to their teams in different ways, and both are the second options for their teams. Whoever is more consistent throughout the series will give his team a major edge.

The Thunder are 7-1 this postseason when Williams scores at least 20 points; the Pacers are 7-1 this postseason when Siakam reaches the 20-point mark.

Shooting Efficiency vs. Defensive Disruption

The Pacers have shot a postseason-high 57.6 effective field goal percentage this postseason. The Thunder have allowed the second-lowest EFG% in these playoffs at 49.9 percent.

Something has to give in this battle of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object.

Entering the series, the consensus based on the odds is that the Thunder have the edge. Their defensive domination set the tone for their successful regular season, while the Pacers have only reached their best within the past month or so.

With that being said, it's important to peak at the right time, which the Pacers have done through the first three rounds. But the Thunder lead all playoff teams in deflections per game (20.8), and they're better at closing out shooters (44.8 contested shots per game) than the Pacers are (40.9 contested shots per game).

It's a clash of styles between a pair of well-coached teams, and with one group just reaching its best while the other has maintained its excellent play all year, the series should be a dream for basketball nerds.

Indy's Chaos vs. OKC's Control

As mentioned earlier, no team covers more ground on offense this postseason than the Indiana Pacers.

They get out on the break, move without the ball, and strive for either easy buckets at the rim or open three-point shots. They've shot 2.2 percent better than the Thunder on catch-and-shoot threes, 2.3 percent better on shots resulting from off-ball movement, and 8.2 percent better on transition shot attempts.

Chaotic movement and disjointed possessions will play into the Pacers' gameplan, but the Thunder can dominate when they're in control of the tempo and decisive in terms of how they want to score.

While the Pacers rely heavily on scoring in transition, the Thunder actually play at a slightly faster pace because they don't go late into the shot clock as often as their 2025 Finals opponents. When they can't find a good shot in transition, the Pacers will often attempt to grind a team down with off-ball movement and quick passing while using the entire 24-second shot clock.

Coach Mark Daigneault will try to get SGA and Hartenstein into pick-and-roll scenarios while limiting how often Indy gets fast-break opportunities and trying to force Carlisle's team into making mistakes. OKC hasn't been as efficient in the playoffs (53.2 EFG%) as they were in the regular season (56.0 EFG%), but Daigneault knows his team will have a major impact on its opponent's efficiency as long as the Thunder controls the tempo.