Spain taking home the 2026 World Cup has set up an interesting race for this year’s Ballon d’Or. No player who featured in the Champions League team of the season made it into the World Cup’s team of the tournament, so this is an open race which could be won by a high-priced outsider.
Recent Ballon d’Or winners
Since 2014, all but one winner of the Ballon d’Or had won a major international tournament or the Champions League before claiming the trophy.
The only outlier in the bunch was Lionel Messi’s win in 2019, when he pipped Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk to the award by just seven votes after the Reds’ Champions League success.
Messi won the Ballon d’Or for a record eighth time in 2023, off the back of Argentina’s victory at the 2022 World Cup. However, he hasn’t placed in the top three of the voting in either of the last two seasons, and Argentina’s defeat in the final of the World Cup probably leaves him short of a ninth win.
2026 Ballon d'Or Odds
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich & England) | +175 |
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona & Spain) | +200 |
Rodri (Man City & Spain) | +400 |
Lionel Messi (Inter Miami & Argentina) | +400 |
Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid & France) | +450 |
Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid & England) | +2000 |
The split between the winners of the World Cup and last season’s Champions League has led to an interesting Ballon d’Or race. Fabian Ruiz is the only PSG player in Spain’s World Cup-winning squad, and as a result, the midfielder is +2500 in the award betting.
Despite his medal haul, there are players who have a better claim to the award than Ruiz. Individual performances are the first thing listed in the criteria for the award, and that’s put Harry Kane out in front, despite two painful semi-final exits.
Kane scored over a goal per game for Bayern Munich this season, helping them to win the league and cup double in Germany. However, he didn’t make much of an impact in their Champions League exit to PSG, nor England’s World Cup loss to Argentina.
Lamine Yamal missed much of Barcelona’s league-winning campaign through injury, and that led to him struggling to perform at his best during Spain’s run to World Cup glory. The first two players in the betting look vulnerable, and there are three at bigger prices who stand out.
Ballon d'Or betting picks and predictions
Rodri to win the Ballon d’Or (+400)
The last two players to win the World Cup’s Golden Ball award, Luka Modric in 2018 and Lionel Messi in 2022, also went on to win the next Ballon d’Or.
Rodri beat Messi to the Golden Ball at this summer’s World Cup, with the Manchester City midfielder returning to his best after a couple of injury-hit campaigns.
Rodri won the Ballon d’Or in 2024 as the heartbeat of Spain’s Euro 2024 triumph, and it’s hard to justify handing Yamal the award over Rodri given what we’ve seen this summer.
Man City’s below-par campaign dents Rodri’s chances, but the World Cup should get a higher weighting. We saw that in 2023, when Messi, then at Inter Miami, won the award 10 months after Argentina’s World Cup success, despite Manchester City winning the Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup in between.
Michael Olise to win the Ballon d’Or (+2500)
While Harry Kane is the award favourite, you can make a strong case that he wasn’t even Bayern Munich’s best player last season.
Michael Olise’s transfer from Crystal Palace in 2024 shot the Frenchman towards superstardom, and he was able to shine at the World Cup.
Olise’s seven assists at this summer’s tournament broke a record set by Pele 56 years ago. He also scored 22 goals and had 26 assists for Bayern last season, winning the Bundesliga Player of the Year ahead of Kane, and making the Champions League team of the season.
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Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to win the Ballon d’Or (+3300)
Georgia’s Kvaratskhelia was named Champions League Player of the Season last term, as he inspired PSG to their second European title.
The fact that his country failed to qualify for the World Cup counts against him, but since the Champions League’s top award was revamped in 2022, it’s featured a lot of overlap with the Ballon d’Or.
Benzema won both awards in 2022, as did Ousmane Dembele in 2025. Vinicius Junior was second in Ballon d’Or voting after claiming the UEFA award in 2024, while Rodri picked up that trophy in 2023 before his Ballon d’Or win a year later.
Kvaratskhelia is the standout option among PSG players, and with the award being handed out by France Football at an event co-organised by UEFA, the European champions’ star man isn’t one to sleep on.
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
