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2024 NFL Season: Most Regular Season Passing TDs Odds

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns ahead of the 2024 season.

Mahomes has proven himself as the league's most talented quarterback as a result of winning three NFL Championships in his six seasons as a starter, but he's followed in the odds by QBs who have more talented receivers than those on the Chiefs.

Let's get into the favorites to lead the league in passing touchdowns in the 2024 NFL Season.

2024 NFL Season - Most Regular Season Passing TDs

Patrick Mahomes


Dak Prescott


Joe Burrow


CJ Stroud


Brock Purdy


Tua Tagovailoa


Jared Goff


Aaron Rodgers


Jordan Love


Josh Allen


Patrick Mahomes +200

The main story surrounding the Kansas City Chiefs during the 2023 regular season was how dropped passes by receivers were holding the team back.

Despite Kansas City leading the league in drops, Patrick Mahomes finished eighth in passing touchdowns and third in completed passes while leading his team to win the NFL Championship.

This season, speedy rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy will join his receiving corps, as will veteran Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown. If Rashee Rice and tight end Travis Kelce can cut down on their drops, Mahomes will be set up for plenty of success this season.

Dak Prescott +600

Dak Prescott and top target CeeDee Lamb were two of the NFL's best players in 2023, anchoring a Dallas Cowboys offense that was the only one to score over 500 points in the regular season. Both players will be motivated in 2024: Their contracts expire after the season.

Prescott finished last season first in completed passes and passing TDs, of which he had 36. He finished second in passing touchdown percentage as 6.1 of his completions ended in TDs.

There weren't any major changes to his receiving corps, meaning the group will come into the season with chemistry. Plus longtime Cowboy Ezekiel Elliott, a solid pass-catcher at running back, returns after a year with the New England Patriots.

Joe Burrow +600

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow entered the 2023 season with a calf injury and never really found his best levels before his campaign ended early due to a wrist injury.

There are questions surrounding the Bengals - particularly regarding Burrow's health and the future of WR Tee Higgins after his trade demand - but if Burrow stays healthy and Higgins stays in Cincy, then it's an ideal situation for a QB to make plays through the air.

In his two full seasons as the Bengals' starting QB, Burrow threw 34 and 35 TDs and the team ranked in the top 10 in receiving TDs on both occasions. With Burrow and his top targets all either in or entering their prime years, the QB could bring home the honor of leading the NFL in passing TDs.

CJ Stroud +1000

There wasn't much expected of Houston Texans then-rookie QB CJ Stroud ahead of his first NFL season, and he blew everyone away with his poised performances. He didn't throw an interception until Week 6, and he only threw five picks all season.

Stroud connected with Tank Dell and Nico Collins often last season, but the QB's 23 TD passes did not crack the top-10. In 2024, he'll have a proven No. 1 target in the receiver room in Stefon Diggs.

A big part of Stroud's development as a passer will be when it comes to making big throws in the red zone. He was second in the league with 12.9 yards per completion last season, so look for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to have his QB take more risks.

Brock Purdy +1200

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy finished third last season with 31 passing touchdowns, and he runs it back with his top targets of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey in 2024.

With those four surrounding him, it's easy to see why he is among the favorites. Purdy also led the NFL in yards per pass attempt (9.6) and yards per completion (13.9), showing both his ability to throw long and his teammates' abilities to make plays with the ball.

San Francisco also took a wide receiver, Florida's Ricky Pearsall, in the first round of the draft. He won't be counted on as a huge immediate contributor, but if he makes an instant impact, it would further boost Purdy's chances of throwing the most TD passes in the 2024 season.

Tua Tagovailoa +1200

Tua Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins quarterback, led the NFL in passing yards in 2023 and led one of the most dynamic offenses in NFL history. He's surrounded by talented, fast skill position players in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane.

Tagovailoa finished last season tied for fifth with 29 TD passes. He had three games with three TD passes and one game with four TD passes in 2023.

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is one of the most inventive offensive minds in the NFL, so it's worth watching to see what he can dial up for Tua to get the ball in the hands of his teammates.

Odds displayed within this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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