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Steve Davies World Cup tips
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Wales v England: Steve Davies' World Cup betting tips

Wales need a miracle, England need a good performance, and the Racing Post's Steve Davies decides which of the two is likelier to happen while pinpointing a couple of decent bets from this Group B finale.

England under no threat to progress

What: Wales v England 
Where: Ahmad bin Ali Stadium Al Rayyan, Qatar 
When: 19:00, Tuesday 29th November 2022 
How to watch: BBC1 & iPlayer
Odds: Wales 13/2, Draw 10/3, England 4/9

England ought to have no fear of failing to qualify for the last 16 – it's going to take a four-goal defeat for even the possibility of that to happen – so Gareth Southgate can, and should, approach this fixture positively. 

The Lions have got friends to make after their largely tame performance against a vibrant, energetic American side, who arguably deserved more than a 0-0 draw from their Friday night showdown. 

And they should find a tired Wales more to their liking. The Welsh are hard to read. Gutsy fighting back after being outplayed for a half by the US, gutless being outplayed by Iran for pretty much 90 minutes in their second game, which Wales can Rob Page summon for this final assignment. 

Miracles do happen but it's Welsh pride at stake rather than any realistic prospect of a place in the last 16, and all they can do is aspire to win the game at odds of 13/2 and hope Iran and the US draw at Al Thumama, an outcome which would make it a British one-two in Group B. 

That Wales are 16/1 to qualify tells you everything and it's not a price that appeals half as much as the England – England Half Time Full Time result at 11/10.   

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Foden the key to unlocking tired defence

England took time to get going against Iran in their first game before getting into their stride, and they couldn't repeat that against the Americans. 

But the 6-2 hammering of Iran showed what was possible and Southgate has players champing at the bit, among them Phil Foden who, no matter how obstinate the England gaffer is, has surely earned himself a start. 

Foden – 13/2 to score first – isn't necessarily a game-changer in himself because he'd be replacing another classy forward, but he is a wonderful talent and will benefit being fresh coming up against a Wales defence which looks one-paced and jaded. 

Southgate is also being urged to think the unthinkable and bring in Callum Wilson in place of skipper Harry Kane. 

The England boss is ferociously loyal and will be loathed to do it, yet it makes sense on many levels. Kane has looked shattered for weeks, long before he flew out to the Gulf, and Wilson has been in superb form for Newcastle. 

Kane has played over 2,300 minutes this season, Wilson around 800 – it's little wonder one is fresher than the other. 

The 7/5 he scores anytime, however, is based on Southgate taking a punt he'd naturally not want to do, so is probably best left alone.   

Bleak prospect for Bale's last hurrah

Gareth Bale, meanwhile, is 9/1 to score first, the type of price you would never have envisaged seeing by the Welsh legend given his record for his country. 

He's got a point to prove after going missing in action against Iran, but having a major influence on a third game in eight days given how little football he has played this year is a huge ask. 

The same goes for Aaron Ramsey and it's hard to see how Wales are going to get enough of the ball to create the chances that will trouble Jordan Pickford and the England defence. 

At the other end Danny Ward, playing in place of the suspended Wayne Hennessey, can expect to be busy. 

Welsh fans will be concerned that if the Iranians can slice Wales open as effortlessly and repeatedly as they managed to in their 2-0 win on Friday, then the likes of Foden, Jack Grealish, Bukayo Saka and one or two others will have a field day. 

The England win at 4/9 should be the cornerstone of any Tuesday acca but for a 90-minute bet instead maybe take a chance on England and both teams not to score at 6/5

And for a correct-score bet, take 3-0 England at 9/1. Sceptics will counter that Southgate's Lions have hardly been roaring of late, with just one win – against Iran – in their last eight. 

But an ageing Wales look shot and it was 3-0 to England when they last met two years ago, a sixth successive triumph for the English.

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