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Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin III: Where the fight will be won

Four years after their second meeting, middleweight superstars Canelo Alvarez and Gennady 'GGG' Golovkin meet to complete their trilogy on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

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The first fight in 2017 finished as a draw and Canelo then won the second fight via majority decision, meaning if either man manages a convincing win on Saturday they will probably be considered the victor in this great boxing rivalry given how close the first two meetings were.

Canelo is the undisputed super middleweight champion and his four titles are on the line. Golovkin is a unified middleweight champion but he has no belts at risk in this meeting as it is a super middleweight contest.

GGG is rated as the underdog but as the Kazakh star's only defeat came at the hands of Alvarez via a majority decision this is likely to be a fiercely contested clash. We take a look at where this fight may be won.

WhatCanelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin
WhereT-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
WhenApprox 20:00 PDT time, Saturday 17th September 2022
How to watchDAZN
Odds

Canelo Alvarez -600, Gennady Golovkin +400

Don't expect early fireworks in Canelo vs Golovkin III

These fighters should know each other well by now after 24 rounds but that doesn't mean we should expect an all-action showdown from the off.

Plenty of time has passed since their last meeting and in the intervening years Canelo has fought eight times, including two contests at light heavyweight.

Golovkin has only fought four times since his majority decision loss to Canelo and hasn't faced the same calibre of opponent.

However, he does come into Saturday's match-up on the back of an impressive win over Ryota Murata as the 'away fighter' in Japan, while Canelo was last seen at light heavyweight as he suffered just the second loss of his career to Russian Dmitry Bivol when attempting to win the WBA World Super light heavyweight belt.

It will be important to make inroads in the early rounds and the more active of the two will be able to take an early lead in the eyes of the judges, but this contest is unlikely to be decided in the opening exchanges.

How can Canelo beat Golovkin?

Canelo has stated he is targeting a knockout victory but Golovkin has just one defeat from 44 contests, and he has never even been knocked down in nearly 400 fights (350 as an amateur, 44 as a professional).

In contrast, Canelo has perhaps found himself in more trouble and he was outclassed in a meeting with the legendary Floyd Mayweather Jr when he suffered his first defeat back in 2013. 

He was also dragged into a war by Miguel Cotto a few years later and the ropes arguably saved him from a knockdown at one stage, but he managed to recover and claim a unanimous decision win against the Puerto Rican.

The Mexican managed to stand up to everything GGG threw at him in the first two fights and the latter is now 40, while Canelo is still in his prime at 32. 

Canelo may be targeting a stoppage win but the reality is his greatest strengths could well be his stamina and boxing intelligence, and if he can outwork GGG in the latter rounds he should be able to win either on points or potentially via a late stoppage.

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How can Golovkin win the trilogy fight?

Canelo is also coming into Saturday's bout on the back of a loss to Bivol, just his second defeat in a 61-fight career, and although he took a lot of punishment against a bigger fighter, at no point did it ever appear as if he wasn't going to hear the final bell.

The first two fights between these two stars were tactical battles and Canelo had the edge in the second meeting, but the pendulum could well swing the other way on Saturday. 

GGG may be the older of the two but his win over Murata shows he is still an elite performer and he needs to make sure he is on the front foot from the off.

If Golovkin can get an early foothold in the battle, land some shots to the body to slow Canelo down and then take advantage of any mistakes while maintaining his own work-rate late on, he has a chance of pulling off an upset.

Canelo's losses to Mayweather and Bivol don't really offer GGG any kind of blueprint to mastermind a victory of his own as they both have attributes he simply doesn't possess - speed and an incredible defense in the case of Mayweather, and size for Bivol - but they at least show the Mexican is beatable and if he gets his tactics right he may be able to come away with what would be the biggest win of an already incredible career.

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