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Australia v Denmark and Tunisia v France: Aaron Ashley's World Cup betting tips

Group D reaches its conclusion on Wednesday with Australia, Denmark and Tunisia battling it out to join France in the knockout stages and Racing Post's Aaron Ashley has pinpointed some value selections from two crucial contests.

After two wins from two, Les Bleus know a point against Tunisia will be enough to see them top the section, while Australia lock horns with Denmark in a must-win contest for the Danes.

The Euro 2020 runners-up were held to a goalless draw by Tunisia in their Qatar curtain-raiser and were then beaten by France, meaning they must now overcome Australia to leapfrog the Socceroos into second.

For Tunisia to qualify they must put an end to France’s perfect record and hope Australia don't win, while also hoping their goal difference is better than the Socceroos and the Danes.

In an intriguing betting heat, Denmark are 8/15 to follow France into the last-16, with Australia 13/8 and Tunisia 20/1 chances.

Disciplined Danes can carve out vital victory

What: Australia v Denmark, Group D
Where: Al Janoub Stadium, Al Wakrah
When: 15:00, Wednesday 30th November 2022
How to watch: BBC Two
Odds: Australia 13/2, Draw 16/5, Denmark 1/2

Australia appear to enjoy their perennial underdog status and few would have anticipated them going into their final group game against Denmark with a serious shot at qualification.

The Socceroos were blown away by France in their opening game, losing 4-1 despite taking a ninth-minute lead through Craig Goodwin, but they were more resolute in beating a toothless Tunisia side.

Australia forward Mitchell Duke grabbed the only goal in that 1-0 win and that was despite them losing the expected goals 1.31 to 0.58.

A draw should be enough to put the Aussies through, but the Danish pressure will be ramped up as time goes on and it is difficult to see how Graham Arnold's men can hold on.

Denmark's lack of cutting edge in forward areas has been evident in their opening two assignments.

Kasper Hjulmand's men were frustrated in a 0-0 draw with Tunisia first time up and were then deservedly beaten 2-1 by France, a game in which they lost the shot count 2.95-0.84.

Even then, Denmark's goal came from an Andreas Christensen set-piece header and for all their quality there is a significant shortage of firepower with neither Kasper Dolberg nor Andreas Cornelius yet to convince up front.

That lends itself to a low-scoring encounter and Denmark, who are 1/2 to win, make more appeal to prevail in a nervy contest.

At 5/2, the value may be with Denmark to win in a game featuring two or fewer goals. With three clean sheets in five games, the Danes are resilient, but they have managed to score more than twice just once in their last 11 internationals.

It's difficult to know how adventurous Australia will be and, even so, they don't boast the same strength in depth as the Danes, who will be hoping creative cog Christian Eriksen can have an influence on the game.

Those looking for an anytime goalscorer bet may want to take a chance on the Danes' flying fullback Joakim Maehle, who has nine goals and six assists from his 33 caps.

He is 4/1 to get on the scoresheet and he will be looking to stretch the Australia defence with his runs in behind.

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France to maintain their perfect start

What: Tunisia v France, Group D
Where: Education City Stadium, Al Rayyan
When: 15:00, Wednesday 30th November 2022
How to watch: BBC One
Odds: Tunisia 7/1, Draw 3/1, France 4/9

So far so good for France, who will be looking to make it nine points from nine and head into the knockout stages full of confidence with victory over Tunisia.

Despite Karim Benzema, Paul Pogba and N'Golo Kante being ruled out prior to the tournament, France have looked strong, while opponents Tunisia still await their first goal of the competition.

Les Bleus coach Didier Deschamps may opt to make some tactical tweaks with qualification already assured, but such is their strength in depth they ought to still have enough in reserve.

Potential Golden Boot winner Kylian Mbappe is expected to figure but mass changes are forecast with Kingsley Coman and Marcus Thuram reportedly in line to replace Olivier Giroud and Ousmane Dembele in the front three.

A new forward line could mean they lose some rhythm so, in a game they don't need to win, goals are not assured.

Ten of Tunisia's last 13 competitive games have featured no more than one goal, which is greatly due to their excellent organisation as well as their lack of attacking intent.

That means the Eagles of Carthage could frustrate France for large spells but finding a goal themselves could prove troublesome, just as it did in the 1-0 defeat to Australia and the goalless draw with Denmark.

France to win to nil at 5/4 makes most appeal and, given Tunisia have conceded more than once in their last 15 internationals, a 1-0 win for Les Bleus could be an attractive punting proposition at odds of 6/1.

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