Our resident boxing expert Rob Tebbutt dissects this weekend's huge flyweight unification bout between Jesse Rodriguez and Sunny Edwards and reveals where he feels the betting value can be found.
Sunny Edwards By Decision or Technical Decision @ 15/8
Sunny Edwards To Be Knocked Down & Win @ 22/1
Coming up this weekend from Arizona we have the flyweight unification that the boxing world has been talking about, Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez puts his WBO flyweight title on the line against Britain’s IBF champion Sunny Edwards.
This is a fight that has captured the imagination of boxing fans around the world. Two elite level fighters squaring off for all of the glory.
‘Bam’ Rodriguez has a brilliant style, he's a switch hitter with good power in both hands. He's now settling down at flyweight after his exploits at super-flyweight last year.
The fact that, for me, this is a real 50/50 fight, together with 'Bam' Rodriguez being the odds-on favourite, the value has to lie with Sunny Edwards!
The British fighter has long been regarded as one of the best pure boxers on the planet, and there's no doubt that he's going to try and out-box his opponent this weekend, whilst fighting on the back foot.
We’ve seen ‘Bam’ struggle at times against opponents who fight in a similar style to Sunny, which is why I like the look of 15/8 on Sunny Edwards to win 'By Decision or Technical Decision'.
Having said that, you can see why people would be tempted to back the American, who has long been considered as one of the top young talents in world boxing.
However, his price is so short for me, even the 11/10 to win 'By Decision or Technical Decision' himself doesn't hold much value.
For me, where the value does lie is 'Between Rounds 7 - 12' as I feel that's where the American could get to work on Edwards and produce a stoppage. It's a very attractive 15/2 for 'Bam' to win in the second half of the fight.
I do expect Sunny to be very slippery and very tricky early doors, but ‘Bam’ Rodriguez is a good body puncher, he will stay patient and could unlock the door late on in the fight. So if you do want to back him then that is where I'd be tempted to look.
There's also a long odds play which I do quite like the look of...
Sunny Edwards 'To be Knocked Down and Win' is priced at 22/1, and I definitely feel there is value in that!
We’ve seen Sunny dropped a couple of times so far in his professional career - once against Marcel Braithwaite and once against Junior Granados - and ‘Bam’ definitely carries the power to cause him problems.
it could well be that Sunny is winning the fight on points, gets caught and sent to the canvas late on, and recomposes himself to see the fight through and get that decision victory he will be looking for.
Fight Result: Jesse Rodriguez
Jesse Rodriguez to score 1 or More Knockdowns
Over 6.5 Rounds
Was 9/2 >> Now 5/1
Fight Result: Sunny Edwards
1 or More Total Fight Knockdowns
Over 8.5 Rounds
Was 15/2 >> Now 17/2
Fight to go the Distance - Yes
Either fighter to Score a Knockdown - Yes
Was 5/4 >> Now 11/2
Bet Boosts were available and correct at the time of writing and are subject to removal or fluctuation.
Full Fight Markets
Murodjon Akhmadaliev By Decision or Technical Decision @ 7/4
This is of course the first time we’ve seen Murodjon Akhmadaliev since he lost those unified super-bantamweight titles to Marlon Tapales earlier this year.
I don’t think this is the easiest of comeback fights for him either against Kevin Gonzalez, a bit of an unknown quantity and a fighter coming out of Mexico who will be looking to come and cause another seismic upset.
We saw Robeisy Ramirez losing at the weekend to Raphael Espinosa; these unknown Mexicans do have a habit of upsetting the apple cart.
Having said that I will be betting on the proven commodity in Murodjon Akhmadaliev. I like the look of him winning this fight 'By Decision or Technical Decision' at 7/4.
Galal Yafai By Decision or Technical Decision @ 15/8
Finally, this weekend in Arizona we see the return of Olympic gold medallist Galal Yafai as he takes on Rocco Santamauro.
Yafai does come into this fight in good form having had that first stoppage win over Tommy Frank in Birmingham back in August, but Santamauro is a decent fighter who went the distance with Ricardo Sandoval - a very highly touted and highly ranked flyweight contender.
With that being said I do think the price for Yafai to win by stoppage is a little bit short and I do expect Santamauro to be tough this weekend, so I’m looking at Galal Yafai 'By Decision or Technical Decision' at .